Four - year Cycle
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Why Bitwise Expects New Bitcoin Highs in 2026—And the End of the 4-Year Cycle
Yahoo Finance· 2025-12-16 22:44
Core Viewpoint - Bitwise predicts Bitcoin will reach new all-time highs above $126,080 in 2026, despite recent declines [1][2] Group 1: Bitcoin's Historical Cycles and Predictions - Bitcoin has historically followed a four-year cycle, typically featuring three 'up' years followed by a pullback year, with 2026 expected to be a pullback year according to traditional views [2] - Bitwise challenges this notion, stating that the factors driving previous cycles, such as Bitcoin halving and interest rate cycles, are significantly weaker now [2][3] - The firm anticipates that institutional capital momentum and regulatory support will drive Bitcoin to new highs, moving beyond the historical four-year cycle [2][3] Group 2: Market Performance and Comparisons - Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $87,800, which is down over 30% from its all-time high but has seen a 2% increase in the last 24 hours [3] - In contrast, traditional equity indices like the Nasdaq and S&P 500 have increased by 14.5% and 12%, respectively, over the past year [4] - Bitwise expects Bitcoin's correlation with the stock market to decrease in 2026 due to regulatory progress and institutional adoption [4] Group 3: Future Predictions and Trends - Bitwise believes that the combination of strong returns, reduced volatility, and lower correlations will provide a "trifecta" for investors [5] - The firm predicts that crypto equities will outperform tech stocks, with half of Ivy League endowments expected to invest in crypto [5] - New highs for Ethereum and Solana are also anticipated, contingent on the passage of the CLARITY Act, which would clarify crypto regulations [5][6] Group 4: Megatrends in Crypto - The firm identifies tokenization and stablecoins as "megatrends" that will benefit layer-1 blockchains like Ethereum and Solana, especially if the CLARITY Act is enacted [6]