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Is AU Poised for Another Robust Y/Y Adjusted EBITDA Increase?
ZACKS· 2025-12-17 18:11
Core Insights - AngloGold Ashanti plc (AU) has achieved a significant year-over-year increase in adjusted EBITDA, driven by higher production volumes, cost discipline, and elevated gold prices, with adjusted EBITDA reaching $4.12 billion in the first nine months of 2025, a 121% increase from the previous year [1][7]. Production Performance - AU's gold production rose by 20% year over year in the first nine months of 2025, totaling 2.292 million ounces, primarily due to strong contributions from the recently acquired Sukari mine and improved performances at key assets such as Obuasi, Siguiri, Geita, and Cerro Vanguardia [2][7]. Cost Efficiency Initiatives - The company's Full Asset Potential Program has been instrumental in driving cost efficiencies and protecting operations against inflation, with the Full Asset Potential Refresh phase currently being implemented across its assets [3]. Production Guidance - Based on solid production performance, AU has reaffirmed its 2025 production guidance of 2.900-3.225 million ounces, indicating a year-over-year growth of 9-21%, setting an optimistic tone for the fourth quarter [4][7]. Peer Comparison - In comparison, Newmont Corporation (NEM) reported an adjusted EBITDA of $8.93 billion in the first nine months of 2025, a 58.8% increase year over year, while Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) saw a 67% increase to $5.60 billion [5]. Stock Performance - AU's stock has surged 281.3% over the past year, outperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry, which increased by 146%, while the Basic Materials sector rose by 30.6% and the S&P 500 grew by 19.4% [6]. Valuation Metrics - Currently, AngloGold Ashanti is trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 13.14X, slightly below the industry average of 13.61X, with a Value Score of B [9]. Sales and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AU's 2025 sales is $9.67 billion, reflecting a 66.9% year-over-year increase, with earnings estimated at $5.51 per share, indicating a 149.3% rise [11]. Earnings Growth Trends - EPS estimates for 2025 have increased by 3.8% over the past 60 days, while estimates for 2026 have risen by 29.6% during the same period [13]. Zacks Rank - AU currently holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), indicating strong market confidence in the company's performance [14].