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贝莱德：2026 年全球展望，突破极限

贝莱德· 2025-12-30 14:41

Investment Rating - The report maintains a pro-risk stance and is overweight on U.S. stocks, particularly focusing on the AI theme as a primary driver of investment opportunities [10][45]. Core Insights - The global economy and financial markets are undergoing significant transformation driven by mega forces, especially AI, which is expected to lead to unprecedented capital spending and investment opportunities [10][11]. - The AI buildout is characterized by a front-loaded investment model, where substantial capital is required upfront, while revenue generation is anticipated to occur later, creating a timing mismatch [14][18]. - The report emphasizes the importance of active investing to identify potential winners and losers in the evolving landscape shaped by AI and other mega forces [10][45]. Summary of Sections Investment Environment - The current investment environment is marked by high leverage, increased cost of capital, and concentrated market gains, necessitating significant investment decisions [24][50]. - AI is projected to contribute significantly to U.S. growth, with capital investment expected to triple its historical average in 2026 [25][32]. Themes - **Micro is Macro**: The AI buildout is dominated by a few large companies whose spending has macroeconomic implications, necessitating careful assessment of their financial viability [35]. - **Leveraging Up**: Companies are increasingly leveraging debt to finance the AI buildout, which could lead to vulnerabilities in the financial system [46][51]. - **Diversification Mirage**: Traditional diversification strategies may not provide the expected risk mitigation, as they often represent larger active bets on market drivers [57][60]. Mega Forces - The AI buildout faces constraints, particularly in energy and infrastructure, which could impact the pace and scale of development [67][68]. - Geopolitical fragmentation and the U.S.-China rivalry are reshaping economic and military dynamics, with AI at the center of this competition [77][78]. Future of Finance - The rise of stablecoins is transforming the financial landscape, bridging traditional finance and digital liquidity, with implications for credit provision and monetary control [86][90]. Private Credit - The private credit market is experiencing increased dispersion, with larger, established lenders remaining resilient while smaller entrants face challenges [95][98]. Infrastructure - Infrastructure investments are seen as essential for supporting the AI buildout, with current valuations not reflecting long-term potential [105][111]. Emerging Markets - Emerging markets are expected to benefit from improved credit fundamentals and rising quality in sovereign debt, particularly in India, which is positioned well for long-term growth [114][125].