Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the Lagos real estate market, highlighting its role as a major economic pillar in Nigeria, particularly after the GDP rebasing exercise [4][15]. Core Insights - The Nigerian economy is transitioning towards stabilization and growth, with a notable GDP growth of 3.98% in Q3 2025, driven by a resilient non-oil sector [5][15]. - Real estate has emerged as the third-largest sector in the rebased economy, contributing 13.36% to total real GDP, underscoring its structural importance [9][15]. - Inflation has moderated significantly, decreasing from 25.3% in June to 15.15% by December 2025, which is expected to support market stability [12][15]. - The naira has stabilized within a managed band, supported by a significant increase in external reserves, which reached $45.45 billion by December 2025 [13][15]. - The enactment of the Nigeria Tax Act 2025 is anticipated to enhance the macro environment for real estate, promoting formal agreements between landlords and tenants [14][30]. Economic Update - The GDP rebasing exercise revealed a larger and more diversified economy, with nominal GDP revised upward by 41.7% [4]. - Real estate's contribution to GDP highlights its critical role in national wealth, with a quarter-on-quarter growth rate of 3.50% [5][9]. - The construction sector outperformed the broader economy with a real growth rate of 5.57%, driven by public infrastructure projects [11]. Residential Market Review - Residential rents in Lagos continued to rise despite moderated inflation, driven by strong demand and constrained supply [22][32]. - Government interventions have facilitated the delivery of 653 residential units through public-private partnerships [23][32]. - The launch of the MOFI Real Estate Investment Fund offering long-term loans at 9.75% indicates ongoing public sector efforts to address housing shortages [24][32]. Retail Market Review - The retail sector has seen limited new development, with a gradual reconfiguration of tenant mix and retail strategies [33][39]. - Indigenous convenience-focused brands have gained traction, reflecting a shift towards cost-efficient retail formats [33][39]. - The average prime retail rents in Lagos are aligned with several African peers, indicating competitive pricing [35]. Office Market Review - The Lagos office market is showing signs of recovery, with Grade A occupancy levels reaching 73% [40][47]. - Rental performance has softened, particularly for prime assets, with effective rents adjusting downward to support occupancy [41][47]. - The emergence of new office developments in Ikeja indicates continued demand for modern office spaces [43][47]. Industrial Market Review - The industrial sector remains resilient, supported by logistics demand and manufacturing activity within Special Economic Zones [49][56]. - Prime industrial rents vary significantly based on infrastructure quality, with Grade A demand accelerating in well-serviced areas [51][56]. - The demand for warehouse spaces has grown approximately 25% year-on-year, reflecting the sector's expansion [74][56]. Infrastructure and Data Centre Market Review - Key infrastructure projects, including the Lagos–Calabar Coastal Highway and the Lagos Green Line Rail Project, are advancing, enhancing connectivity [57][63]. - The data centre market in Lagos is valued at approximately $1.4 billion, indicating strong investor interest and capacity additions [59][63]. Port Harcourt Real Estate Market - Port Harcourt's real estate market is driven by the oil sector, with residential demand growing at an estimated 12-15% [65][87]. - The retail sector has expanded significantly, driven by a rising middle class and consumer preferences for modern shopping environments [67][87]. - Industrial land prices have risen 10-20% over three years, with demand for warehouses increasing by about 25% year-on-year [74][87]. Abuja Real Estate Market - Abuja's real estate market is characterized by high demand and strong capital appreciation, with average property prices projected to rise by 10-15% annually in prime areas [81][98]. - The market is shifting towards integrated, technology-enabled commercial spaces, reflecting evolving tenant needs [85][98]. - The persistent housing deficit and urbanization are driving demand for middle-to-low-income housing in satellite towns [92][98].