Group 1 - The baseline expectation is a government shutdown, with prediction markets indicating over a 75% probability of occurrence [2][3] - Average shutdown duration is typically a few days, but can range from a few hours to several weeks, with a notable past instance lasting 35 days during Trump's first term [2][7] - Market impacts from the shutdown are expected to be muted, although potential layoffs could have a more significant effect on GDP [3][5] Group 2 - The estimated GDP impact from a shutdown is about 0.1% per week, which may diminish over time as government employees return to work [5] - There is uncertainty regarding the permanence of layoffs, as historical patterns show that courts often intervene to reinstate employees [4][6] - Sector-specific impacts may arise, particularly in industries like airlines and economic assistance programs, which could face disruptions [6][8] Group 3 - Despite potential growth risks from higher tariffs, the equity outlook remains constructive, indicating that earnings may perform well even if overall growth slows [8][9] - There is a disconnect between expected equity performance and broader economic conditions, suggesting that stocks could thrive despite economic challenges [9]