Eli Lilly and Co. LLY is set to release its second-quarter earnings on August 7. According to Benzinga Pro data, analysts are anticipating adjusted earnings of $5.56 per share and sales of $14.4 billion.Expectations are slightly higher for the quarter, primarily driven by the strong performance of its obesity drug, Zepbound. The pharmaceutical giant, a dominant player in the incretin/GLP-1 drug market for obesity and diabetes, continues to draw investor attention with its robust pipeline and long-term growt ...

Core Viewpoint - Hims & Hers Health, Inc. is facing significant challenges, including an 18% decline in stock price over the past month, primarily due to the termination of its collaboration with Novo Nordisk and ongoing legal scrutiny regarding its compounded drug offerings [1][2][3]. Company Developments - The termination of the collaboration with Novo Nordisk in June 2025 has resulted in Hims & Hers losing direct access to Wegovy, a popular GLP-1 weight-loss drug [1][3]. - Hims & Hers aims to achieve $6.5 billion in revenue and $1.3 billion in Adjusted EBITDA by 2030, despite current challenges [3]. - The company reported over $225 million in revenue from GLP-1 products in 2024, indicating some success in this segment [6]. Regulatory and Legal Context - Novo Nordisk cited Hims & Hers' alleged failure to comply with laws regarding compounded drugs and deceptive marketing practices as reasons for ending the collaboration [2]. - The FDA's removal of semaglutide from the drug shortage list has impacted Hims & Hers, as it indicates sufficient supply to meet demand, reducing the justification for compounded versions [5]. - Legal scrutiny is focused on the legality of mass-producing compounded versions of GLP-1 drugs now that the official shortage is over [6][7]. Market Implications - Analysts from Morgan Stanley have noted an increased focus on the legal and business implications for Hims & Hers, particularly in light of Eli Lilly's lawsuits against compounding pharmacies [7][12]. - Experts suggest that compounding pharmacies should cease large-scale production of GLP-1 drugs once the shortage ends, although there may be cases for compounding under specific regulations [8][9]. - The ongoing legal cases could take 2 to 3 years to resolve, impacting the operational landscape for Hims & Hers [12]. Strategic Moves - Hims & Hers announced an agreement to acquire ZAVA, a digital health platform in Europe, which will expand its presence in the UK and enter new markets such as Germany, France, and Ireland [13].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a favorable outlook for both Zepbound and Wegovy, with physicians rating Zepbound higher in efficacy, tolerability, and patient satisfaction compared to Wegovy [7][36]. Core Insights - Zepbound is expected to continue gaining market share from Wegovy, with a projected 60:40 split in favor of Zepbound within a year [7]. - The removal of compounded GLP-1s is anticipated to benefit both Novo and Lilly, with nearly 75% of patients expected to switch to branded products [7]. - Physicians expect Zepbound and Wegovy to retain approximately 50% of the market share in five years, with oral GLP-1s and next-gen high-efficacy products capturing the remaining share [7]. - Reimbursement remains a significant hurdle, with around 40% of patients denied coverage for GLP-1s, primarily due to lack of insurance coverage and insufficient comorbidities [9][40]. Summary by Sections Key Obesity Survey Takeaways - Zepbound has overtaken Wegovy in prescriptions, with current shares at 42% for Zepbound and 40% for Wegovy [28]. - Physicians expect a 60:40 split in favor of Zepbound in the next year as compounded GLP-1s exit the market [28]. - Cost is the primary reason for treatment discontinuation, affecting both Zepbound and Wegovy similarly [62]. Key Novo Takeaways - Novo is expected to benefit from the reduced availability of compounded products, with Wegovy gaining around 50% of patients switching from compounded drugs [11]. - The launch of oral Wegovy and other high-efficacy products is crucial for Novo to maintain market share [11]. - Efforts to improve reimbursement processes are expected to unlock significant market growth for both Novo and Lilly [11]. Key Eli Lilly Takeaways - Zepbound's market share is projected to grow from approximately $12.5 billion in 2025 to nearly $20 billion by 2027 [13]. - The pipeline for Lilly's incretin franchise is expected to expand significantly, with oral GLP-1s anticipated to capture around 20% market share in five years [13]. - LillyDirect and other direct-to-consumer channels are becoming increasingly important for Zepbound's market penetration [13]. Reimbursement Insights - The survey indicates that 40% of patients prescribed GLP-1s are denied reimbursement, with the most common reasons being lack of insurance coverage and insufficient comorbidities [40]. - Approximately 60% of patients denied coverage opt for out-of-pocket treatments [41]. - As insurance coverage improves, the fill rate for GLP-1 prescriptions is expected to increase, benefiting both Novo and Lilly [44]. Market Share Expectations - In five years, Zepbound is expected to maintain a leading share of around 30%, with Wegovy and oral GLP-1s each capturing approximately 20% [48]. - Physicians anticipate that the use of weight loss medications among heavier patients (BMI ≥40) will increase significantly if higher efficacy options become available [51].

Weight loss syringes of the brands "Wegovy", "Ozempic" are sold at In der Achat Apotheke in Mitte, Germany.A version of this article first appeared in CNBC's Healthy Returns newsletter, which brings the latest health-care news straight to your inbox. Subscribe here to receive future editions.Novo Nordisk's blockbuster weight loss and diabetes drugs Wegovy and Ozempic are once again being linked to unintended side effects. The weekly injections may, in very rare cases, cause a serious eye condition that can ...

Weight-loss drugs are suppressing appetites for millions of Americans, threatening to upend dining habits at fast-food chains and casting a shadow over the restaurant industry’s long-term growth.The stark warning came from Redburn Atlantic, which on Tuesday issued a rare double downgrade on McDonald's Corp. MCD — cutting the stock from Buy to Sell — amid growing concern that appetite-suppressing medications such as Novo Nordisk A/S’s NVO Wegovy and Eli Lilly and Co.’s LLY Zepbound are reshaping consumer beh ...

Core Viewpoint - Eli Lilly is set to present new data on multiple GLP-1 drugs at the American Diabetes Association (ADA) event, which could significantly impact its stock performance and growth prospects [4][5][10] Group 1: Upcoming Events - The ADA's 85th Scientific Sessions will take place from June 20 to 23, where Eli Lilly will report on studies related to GLP-1 drugs, including tirzepatide, orforglipron, and retatrutide [4] - An investor event hosted by Eli Lilly on June 22 will discuss key presentations from the ADA Scientific Sessions [4] Group 2: Stock Performance and Market Sentiment - Eli Lilly's stock has been flat since the start of 2025, with no significant catalysts to drive its price higher, despite reaching over $900 earlier this year [6] - The stock is currently trading at more than 60 times its trailing earnings, indicating that investors expect near-perfect performance from the company [7] Group 3: Financial Performance - Over the trailing 12 months, Eli Lilly generated revenue exceeding $49 billion, with profits totaling $11.1 billion, a significant increase from less than $29 billion in revenue and $6.2 billion in profit in 2022 [8] - The growth attributed to new GLP-1 drugs has positively transformed the company's financial outlook [8] Group 4: Investment Potential - Eli Lilly is viewed as a strong business with promising growth prospects, potentially reaching a $1 trillion valuation in the coming years, representing an upside of over 45% from its current position [9] - Despite unimpressive year-to-date returns, the stock is considered to have significant room for growth, making it an attractive investment opportunity ahead of the ADA event [10]

Core Viewpoint - The departure of CEO Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen from Novo Nordisk A/S comes amid significant challenges in the weight loss and diabetes drug market, particularly due to increased competition from Eli Lilly and Company, which has led to a decline in Novo's market share and stock performance [1][3][11]. Group 1: CEO Departure and Company Performance - Jørgensen has been CEO since January 2017, during which Novo Nordisk achieved a total return of approximately 304%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 199% return [2]. - However, in the past 52 weeks, Novo's stock has declined nearly 52% from its peak on June 25, 2024, indicating recent struggles [2]. - The company's market share in the weight loss drug sector has fallen from approximately 71% to around 55% as of Q1 2025, primarily due to the rapid growth of Eli Lilly's Zepbound [4]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Eli Lilly's tirzepatide has shown to achieve about 47% more weight loss compared to Novo's semaglutide, contributing to Novo's loss of market share [3]. - Recent trial results for Novo's experimental drug CagriSema showed an average weight loss of 22.7%, which was below expectations and only slightly higher than tirzepatide's 22.5% [5][6]. - Following disappointing trial results, Novo's shares dropped significantly, with an 18% decline after the CagriSema announcement and over 9% after further disappointing results [6][7]. Group 3: Future Leadership and Strategy - Analysts suggest that Novo's next CEO may be an external hire, potentially an American, to better navigate the U.S. market, which accounted for 57% of Novo's sales last quarter [8][9]. - The new CEO will need to revitalize Novo's drug pipeline to compete effectively with Eli Lilly, with hopes pinned on the potential of UBT251, a "triple-agonist" drug [10]. - The upcoming earnings report on August 6 is anticipated to provide further insights into Novo's strategic plans and stock outlook [11].

The Cigna Group (CI) Q1 2025 Earnings Call May 02, 2025 08:30 AM ET Company Participants Ralph Giacobbe - Senior VP - IRDavid Cordani - Chairman & Chief Executive OfficerBrian Evanko - President & COOAnn Dennison - EVP & CFOLisa Gill - Managing DirectorA.J. Rice - Managing DirectorCharles Rhyee - Managing DirectorAndrew Mok - DirectorJoshua Raskin - Partner - Managed Care & Providers Conference Call Participants Justin Lake - Analyst - Healthcare ServicesAnn Hynes - Senior Healthcare Services Equity Analyst ...

Group 1: Company Overview - Eli Lilly is the most valuable healthcare company globally, with a market cap of approximately $800 billion, and is considered a promising long-term investment due to its dominance in the GLP-1 drug market [1] - The company experienced a 32% increase in sales last year, driven by the popularity of its GLP-1 drugs, Zepbound and Mounjaro, which generated a combined $16.5 billion in sales [2][6] Group 2: Legal and Market Challenges - Eli Lilly is suing compounding pharmacies that have been offering knock-off versions of its GLP-1 drugs, which could divert sales and negatively impact the brand's perception if patients experience side effects from these unapproved products [3][4] Group 3: Future Growth Catalysts - Eli Lilly is developing a daily weight loss pill, orforglipron, which could significantly change the industry landscape, as current GLP-1 treatments are injectables [5] - Positive results from a late-stage trial of orforglipron indicate potential for weight loss and blood sugar reduction, boosting investor confidence [6] - The company plans to release data from nine studies related to orforglipron's performance throughout the year, with the final results expected in October [7] - Approval for orforglipron could occur next year, and strong trial results may lead to significant stock price increases [8] Group 4: Investment Considerations - Despite trading at over 70 times its trailing earnings, Eli Lilly is viewed as a potentially strong buy due to anticipated growth, especially if the weight loss and diabetes pill receives approval [9]