Core Insights - Bitcoin experienced a 2.6% increase during holiday trading, but QCP Capital cautions that the rally lacks the necessary conviction for a sustained breakout, as open interest has sharply decreased, indicating that capital remains sidelined ahead of year-end [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent rally in Bitcoin appears to be driven by spot and perpetual buying rather than forced liquidations, with only $40 million in long liquidations recorded during this period, potentially supported by renewed corporate demand as Michael Saylor hinted at additional purchases [2] - Following a record options expiry, post-expiry positioning has shifted significantly, with BTC perpetual funding on Deribit rising from near-flat levels to above 30%, indicating that dealers who were previously long gamma are now positioned short gamma to the upside [3] - A sustained move above $94,000 could amplify a gamma-driven squeeze, as aggressive buying was observed when Bitcoin briefly surpassed $90,000 [4] Group 2: Technical Support and Leverage - The $86,000 level has shown resilience as a technical support level despite ongoing institutional outflows [5] - Despite weak conviction in the market, traders added $2.4 billion in leverage throughout December, with combined Bitcoin and Ethereum futures increasing from $35 billion to $38 billion, reflecting a 7% expansion in leverage amid expectations of capitulation [6] - Bitcoin open interest rose by $1 billion, increasing from $22 billion to $23 billion, while Ethereum's open interest increased by $1.4 billion, climbing from $13 billion to $15 billion, indicating persistent optimism in the market [7]