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Will Quantum Computing Stocks IonQ, Rigetti Computing, and D-Wave Quantum Plunge 80% (or More)? History Offers a Chilling Answer.
The Motley Fool· 2025-12-03 08:51
Core Insights - Quantum computing has emerged as the hottest stock market trend in 2025, surpassing artificial intelligence as the primary catalyst on Wall Street [1] - Quantum computing pure-play stocks have seen significant price increases, with some rising by up to 965% over the past year [2] - The technology is expected to create substantial economic value, with estimates ranging from $450 billion to $850 billion by 2040 [7] Industry Overview - Quantum computing utilizes specialized computers based on quantum mechanics to solve complex problems that classical computers cannot address, potentially revolutionizing various industries [3][6] - Applications include drug development and accelerating AI learning processes, which are driving investor excitement [6] Market Dynamics - Institutional investors, including JPMorgan Chase, are recognizing the potential of quantum computing, with the bank identifying it as a key area in its $1.5 trillion Security and Resiliency Initiative [9][10] - Collaborations with major tech companies like Amazon and Microsoft are providing quantum computing firms access to significant customer bases [10] Historical Context - Historical trends indicate that new technologies often face significant adoption delays, with investors typically overestimating the speed of market acceptance [11][12] - Previous tech trends, such as the internet and blockchain, have experienced bubble-bursting events, suggesting that quantum computing may follow a similar trajectory [13][14] Valuation Concerns - Current price-to-sales (P/S) ratios for quantum computing stocks are significantly above historical bubble thresholds, indicating potential overvaluation [17] - Historical data shows that leading companies in tech trends can lose 80% or more of their value during market corrections [18][20]