Geopolitical Distance

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亚洲量化策略-2025 年全球投资指引-新兴市场 亚太地区Asia Quantitative Strategy-Global Exposure Guide 2025 – EMAsia Pacific
2025-08-05 03:15
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Asia Pacific and Emerging Markets (EM) sectors, analyzing over 2,000 stocks and their geographic revenue exposure in 2025 [1][10]. Core Insights - **Revenue Generation**: APxJ and EM companies generate 28-29% of their revenues from foreign markets, while this figure is significantly higher at 44% for Japan. Chinese companies have increased their foreign revenue share to 16% in 2025, up from under 12% previously [2][18]. - **Sector Performance**: The IT sector is a major driver of global exposure, with Software, Semiconductors, and Tech Hardware generating 70-79% of their revenues abroad, predominantly from developed markets [2][5]. - **Geopolitical Analysis**: A new stock-level geopolitical distance score has been introduced, assessing how foreign revenues are sourced from markets with differing UN voting patterns compared to the company's domicile [3][24]. Revenue and Cost Structure Updates - The report updates revenue and cost screens for various regions, highlighting companies with significant revenue exposure to the US, developed Europe, and China [4][10]. - The share of revenues sourced from China has decreased from 42% in 2022 to 35% in 2025, while revenues from Asia-Pacific-ex-China markets have increased, reflecting a recovery since 2022 [16][23]. Emerging Trends - **Foreign Sales Growth**: Chinese companies are experiencing a consistent growth trend in foreign sales, particularly in Europe, with the share of revenues from the Americas also showing a slight increase [17][20]. - **Investment Themes**: The Global Exposure Guide is aligned with Morgan Stanley's key theme for 2025, "Investing for a Multipolar World," emphasizing the importance of geographic exposure amid shifting end-markets and supply chain diversification [10][11]. Additional Insights - The report provides a comprehensive database compiled from 170+ analysts' forward-looking revenue estimates, enhancing the quality of geographic exposure data compared to competitors [5][10]. - The geopolitical distance scores range from 0 (domestic revenues) to 3.5 (significant divergence in UN voting patterns), allowing for stock-level rankings and market aggregates [25][26]. Conclusion - The analysis indicates a shifting landscape in revenue generation and geopolitical alignment for companies in the Asia Pacific and EM regions, highlighting both opportunities and risks for investors in 2025 [1][10].