Summary of J.P. Morgan's Uranium Market Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Uranium Market - **Key Analysts**: Bill Peterson (U.S. Clean Tech & Metals Mining) and Milan Tomic (Australia Metals & Mining) [1] Key Points Supply Dynamics - The uranium market is facing tight supply, with spot and term prices increasing approximately 5% year-to-date [3] - Major producers are reducing output: - Kazatomprom plans to cut 2026 production by 10% to 77 million pounds [3] - Cameco is reducing MacArthur River output from 18 million to 13 million pounds [3] - Operational issues at smaller mines in Australia are contributing to supply tightness [3] - Secondary supply from government stockpiles has decreased from 50% of total supply in 2021 to about 15% in 2025, expected to decline further by 2030 [3] - Uranium prices are projected to remain supported over the next few years due to the need for higher prices to incentivize new supply [3] Demand Growth - Global uranium demand is expected to rise from 188 million pounds in 2025 to 230 million pounds by 2030, driven primarily by China [3] - China's demand is projected to grow at a 6.7% CAGR to 2030, while the rest of the world is expected to grow at 2.7-3% [3] - China is building about six new reactors annually, increasing its fleet from 62 to 93 reactors by 2030 [3] U.S. Policy and Energy Security - The U.S. government is focusing on building strategic uranium reserves and supporting a domestic nuclear supply chain [3] - President Trump's executive order aims to expand U.S. nuclear capacity from approximately 100 GW to over 400 GW by 2050 [3] - Increased electricity demand from AI and data centers is driving interest in nuclear power [3] - Utilities are exploring new reactor builds and extending existing plant lifespans, supported by the IRA production tax credits [3] Enrichment Capacity and Geopolitical Factors - Global enrichment demand is expected to rise from 50 million SWU today to 75-100 million SWU per year by 2040 [4] - Russia accounted for over 25% of foreign-origin SWU in 2023, but trade flows are being limited by regulatory frameworks [4] - Potential loss of Russian supply post-2028 could create a 15-20 million SWU deficit, impacting U.S. customers [4] - Congress has allocated $2.7 billion to enhance U.S. enrichment capacity, alongside $700 million from the IRA for HALEU programs [4] Geopolitical Dynamics - Uranium mine supply is concentrated in Kazakhstan (~40%), Canada (~20%), and Africa (~12%) [4] - Kazatomprom faces reserve depletion post-2030, while Canada is expected to increase its role with new projects [4] - Geopolitical issues, such as asset seizures in Niger, add uncertainty to African supply [4] - Key investment catalysts include U.S. strategic reserve announcements, financial activities, production cuts, and new enrichment technologies [4] Additional Insights - The uranium market is at a critical juncture, becoming increasingly reliant on miners' ability to ramp up new supply sources [3] - U.S. and EU utilities currently hold around three years' worth of inventory, reducing the urgency to contract aggressively [3] - Balance in the uranium market is projected around 2028-29 [3] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the uranium market's supply-demand dynamics, geopolitical factors, and investment opportunities.