June 16, 2025 05:39 AM GMT The Oil Manual Navigating Geopolitics: Three Scenarios Increased military activity between Israel and Iran has opened up a wide range of future oil price trajectories. Amongst these, we can foresee three 'anchor' scenarios, which we discuss in this report. Uncertainty is likely to last for some time, during which risk premia of ~$10/bbl are justified, in our view. Key Takeaways Exhibit 1: By combining several high-frequency datasets, we can construct a timely proxy of OPEC product ...

Key Takeaways Crude surged over 7% Friday after Israeli airstrikes hit key Iranian nuclear and energy infrastructure. CIVI, APA and FANG rose as oil markets priced in heightened geopolitical risk and supply concerns. Iran threats to the Strait of Hormuz and Israeli gas platform shutdowns compound global energy market fears.The Middle East is once again at the heart of global energy turbulence. In a dramatic escalation, Israel launched coordinated airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and energy infrastructure — r ...

J P M O R G A N Global Commodities Research 12 June 2025 Oil Markets Weekly 7% probability of something that has never happened Oil surged as much as 5% on reports that the US embassy in Iraq is preparing to be evacuated in response to heightened security risks in the region. Concurrently, the US State Department announced plans to order non-essential embassy personnel and their families to leave Bahrain and Kuwait, and the British Navy issued a rare warning to ships in the region, stating it "has been made ...

Global Commodities Research 13 June 2025 Oil Flash Note J P M O R G A N Israel's attack on Iran raises worst-case scenario probability to 17% Israel launched a wide-ranging attack on Iran's nuclear program and military leadership overnight, striking dozens of targets in an operation that pushes the region into a new conflict with uncertain consequences. While the initial attack avoided energy targets, the Israeli offensive could extend over several days, with Iran vowing to retaliate, potentially having a s ...