Even if Iran complies with President Trump's call to reopen the straight of war moves by 8:00 PM tomorrow, our next guest does not see a quick fix for global oil flows. Let's bring in Rebecca Babin, senior senior energy trader at CIBC private wealth. Rebecca, thank you for joining us. >> Thanks for having me. >> All right, so uh there was a report out we're going to talk about from Catrini. They say there's more flowing than we actually think that you can actually see online or through some of these service ...

Core Insights - Gold is a non-income generating asset, with value changes driven solely by price movements in the underlying metal [1] - Gold is often discussed in the context of inflation and economic conditions, responding to changes in currency value, interest rates, and geopolitical events [2][3] - Gold's value is not tied to corporate performance or fixed interest payments, differentiating it from financial assets like stocks [4] Market Dynamics - Geopolitical tensions and changes in energy markets can significantly influence gold demand and pricing [3] - Gold and stocks may exhibit different price movements over shorter periods, but their roles in a portfolio are shaped by their responses to contrasting economic conditions over longer periods [5] Gold IRA Structure - A gold IRA holds physical metals, which introduces different behaviors compared to traditional financial assets held in retirement accounts [6] - The structure of a gold IRA requires secure storage and involves multiple parties, including custodians and dealers, adding complexity to transactions [8] Cost Considerations - Holding physical gold in an IRA incurs various fees, including setup fees, ongoing custodian fees, storage fees, and dealer premiums, which can affect overall investment costs [10][11] - Transaction fees may apply when buying or selling metals within the account, alongside the market price of gold [11] Access and Distribution - Contribution limits and withdrawal rules for gold IRAs are set by the IRS, with specific considerations for selling metals to meet distribution requirements [12][13] - Account holders do not take direct possession of the metals while they remain in the IRA, and distributions are subject to IRS rules [13] Portfolio Interaction - Gold can be included in a diversified portfolio, with its price movements potentially differing from those of stocks and bonds, affecting overall portfolio performance [14] - Investors focused on alternative asset mixes may find gold appealing, while those preferring simpler account structures may not align with the complexities of a gold IRA [15] Conclusion - A gold IRA offers a way to hold physical assets within a retirement account, with distinct differences in cost, access, and price behavior compared to traditional financial securities [17][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term EC market is centered around contract price negotiation and spot price fluctuation. With the supply - demand in a loose pattern, there is insufficient upward driving force for prices. It is recommended to handle it with a volatile mindset and be vigilant against the downward risk caused by continuous supply expansion, while focusing on the subsequent shipment rhythm and unexpected changes in the geopolitical situation [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Shipping Derivatives Data - **China Export Container Freight Rates**: - SCFI - US West: Present value is 2249, previous value is 1489, with a growth rate of 14.85% [1] - SCFI - US East: Present value is 3111, previous value is 2717, with a growth rate of 15.93% [1] - SCFIS - US West: Present value is 1618, previous value is 1452, with a growth rate of 14.50% [1] - SCFI - Northwest Europe: Present value is 1710, previous value is 1489, with a growth rate of 14.85% [1] - CCFI Composite Index SCFI: Present value is 1072, previous value is 1054, with a growth rate of 1.70% [1] - SCFI - Mediterranean: Present value is 1545, previous value is 1463, with a growth rate of 5.60% [1][2] - SCFIS - Northwest Europe: Present value is 2666, previous value is 2360, with a growth rate of 12.97% [1][2] Geopolitical Events - The US military launched an air strike on Iranian facilities on Kharg Island. There were over 15 explosions on the island, but the oil infrastructure was not damaged, and the air - defense system restarted after about an hour. Iran stated that oil exports from the island were normal and important oil infrastructure was not damaged [2] - Trump said the conditions were not good enough, and he was not ready to reach an agreement with Iran [2] - According to the New York Post, Iran's foreign minister said that all countries except the US and Israel were allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz [2] - The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps firmly believes that if Iran loses control of the Strait of Hormuz, it will lose the war [2] Market Conditions and Logic - **Market Conditions**: The market showed a weak and volatile trend [3] - **Logic**: This week, the core of the container shipping European line revolved around the game between marginal changes in supply - demand fundamentals and geopolitical event drivers. On the supply side, the capacity deployment on the European line was on a continuous upward trend. The weekly average capacity in March was 270,000 TEU, and it remained above 300,000 TEU in April - May. With the redeployment of idle capacity from the Middle - East route to the European line, the pressure of loose supply was gradually emerging. On the demand side, the fulfillment of the traditional post - holiday peak shipping season was lower than expected, and the recovery of terminal demand in Europe and the US was slow, providing limited support for spot freight rates. At the event level, the long - term Red Sea conflict has been gradually priced in by the market, and the marginal cost premium brought by route detours has weakened [4] Strategy - Adopt a wait - and - see approach and pay attention to the 4 - 5 reverse spread [6]

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Market Context - The market is experiencing significant volatility due to geopolitical events, particularly US and Israeli airstrikes, and rising inflation numbers [10][12][20] - Recent economic data indicates that inflation remains high, with core CPI at 2.5% and PPI at 2.9% year-over-year, contributing to market pressure [13][21] - The market has seen a rotation into defensive sectors, with energy up 27.5% and basic materials up 17.4% year-to-date [15][16] Investment Strategy - In light of current market conditions, the focus is on dividend stocks as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty [14][20] - The average dividend yield of the recommended stocks is approximately 5.64% [15] - A barbell approach is suggested, combining dividend-paying stocks with those that have strong fundamentals to mitigate risk [41][42] Stock Recommendations - Three REITs are highlighted for their strong performance and dividend yields: 1. **Getty (GTY)**: Market cap of $1.96 billion, ranked 1 out of 24 in retail REITs, with 27 consecutive years of dividend payments and a forward yield of 5.86% [62][63][65] 2. **W.P. Carey (WPC)**: Market cap of $16 billion, ranked 2 out of 12 in diversified REITs, focusing on mission-critical assets with strong profitability and momentum [67][69] 3. **Alpine Income Property Trust (PINE)**: Market cap of $320 million, ranked 1 out of 170 in diversified REITs, with a 5.3% dividend increase since Q4 [71][73] Performance Metrics - The REIT strong buys have outperformed the XLRE ETF, with a return of 191% since January 2017 compared to the ETF's 84% [60][61] - The quant strong buys have shown a significant performance increase, with a 117% return over two years following a 15% market pullback [52] Market Sentiment - Current market sentiment is characterized by fear and uncertainty, leading to a sell-off in high-performing stocks, which presents buying opportunities for those with strong fundamentals [29][30][55] - Historical data suggests that markets tend to recover positively after military events, with a median return of about 11% over 12 months [46][48]

Core Viewpoint - U.S. stock futures opened sharply lower due to geopolitical tensions following the strikes in the Middle East, particularly the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader, which has disrupted global energy supply chains and raised concerns about a broader conflict [1][2]. Market Reactions - Analysts expect a broader market reaction to the recent attacks compared to previous geopolitical events, primarily due to the immediate disruption of energy supplies and the potential for conflict escalation [2]. - Stocks were already under pressure from concerns over AI disruptions and issues in private credit markets, indicating a pre-existing vulnerability in the market [3]. Trading Expectations - Investors are anticipated to sell stocks and buy bonds, a trend that had already begun prior to the strikes, with the S&P 500 falling 0.4% on the preceding Friday and U.S. 10-year note yields decreasing by five basis points [4]. - U.S. stock index futures were reported down about 1% each on Sunday, indicating a negative market sentiment [6]. Currency and Commodity Insights - Global investors may shift towards the U.S. dollar, potentially increasing its value after a recent period of selling, while the S&P 500 remains relatively unchanged compared to other global markets [7]. - Analysts predict oil prices could rise to at least $90 per barrel, with Brent crude trading around $80 per barrel at the time of reporting. Gold is expected to be a significant beneficiary of the conflict, with potential surges of up to $200 per ounce [8].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have risen above $5,100 for the first time since January 30, driven by a Supreme Court ruling against President Trump's tariffs and ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly with Iran [2][3]. Price Movement - Gold futures opened at $5,128.80 per troy ounce, reflecting a 0.9% increase from the previous closing price of $5,080.90 [1]. - The one-week price change for gold is +3.5%, one month is +3.6%, and one year is +74.5% [9]. Market Influences - The Supreme Court ruled that President Trump's tariffs were illegal, which has contributed to market uncertainty and increased demand for gold [2]. - Ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran are also supporting higher demand for gold [3]. Historical Performance - The one-year gain for gold was reported at 95.6% as of January 29 [4]. Pricing Mechanisms - Gold prices can be quoted in various forms, with spot prices representing the current market price for physical gold, while gold futures prices are contracts for future transactions [6][8]. - The spot price is generally lower than retail prices due to additional costs like premiums for refining and marketing [7]. Factors Affecting Gold Prices - Key factors influencing gold prices include geopolitical events, central bank buying trends, inflation, interest rates, and mining production [12].

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Group 1 - Domestic refined oil prices are expected to increase, with a predicted rise of approximately 3 yuan for a full 50-liter tank starting from January 20 at 24:00 [1] - The average reference crude oil price during the current adjustment cycle is reported at $61.09 per barrel, reflecting a 1.72% increase compared to the previous cycle [1] - The expected adjustment for refined oil prices is around 90 yuan per ton, marking the first price increase of the year [1] Group 2 - As of January 16, the average market price for 92 gasoline is 7279 yuan per ton, down 0.19% from the previous adjustment cycle, while diesel is priced at 5994 yuan per ton, down 1.54% [2] - The international oil price has rebounded significantly due to escalating geopolitical events, leading to a rising cost trend [2] - The next retail price adjustment window for refined oil is anticipated to open on February 3, 2026, with a high probability of price increases [2]

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 Index is currently near its all-time high, reflecting investor sentiment influenced by ongoing earnings season and geopolitical events [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 Index was trading at $6,9400, just a few points below its previous high [1]