Group 1 - JPMorgan maintains a Brent crude oil forecast in the low-to-mid $60s through 2025, with a flat price of $60 in 2026, indicating that geopolitical tensions are largely priced in [1][2] - The fair value of Brent is pegged at $66, suggesting a $10/bbl geopolitical premium during escalated tensions [1] - In an $80 WTI upside scenario, certain energy companies are expected to show industry-leading free cash flow (FCF) to enterprise value yields, with Talos at 40.7%, SM at 37.1%, and Civitas at 31.2% by 2027 [3] Group 2 - Despite a muted outlook for crude oil, JPMorgan identifies high-conviction upside in overlooked energy equities, suggesting potential for significant returns for investors willing to accept volatility [4] - Civitas Resources Inc is projected to have a 35% upside to $45, SM Energy Co a 24% upside to $35, and Talos Energy Inc an 18% upside to $11 [6] Group 3 - JPMorgan outlines three reasons for its cautious stance on oil prices, including a low probability of an all-out attack on Iran, the economic implications of closing the Strait of Hormuz, and the financial constraints faced by Gulf nations [5]