Oil futures lose ground as a U.S.-mediated deal seeking to end the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza takes some geopolitical premium out of the market."The immediate effect of the agreement was a reduction in fears of a regional escalation that could disrupt energy supply routes," Antonio di Giacomo of XS.com says in a note. "Some analysts believe this first step could pave the way for more ambitious negotiations with Iran, adding another factor of relief to crude oil prices."Further downside risks for crude include ...

Group 1 - JPMorgan maintains a Brent crude oil forecast in the low-to-mid $60s through 2025, with a flat price of $60 in 2026, indicating that geopolitical tensions are largely priced in [1][2] - The fair value of Brent is pegged at $66, suggesting a $10/bbl geopolitical premium during escalated tensions [1] - In an $80 WTI upside scenario, certain energy companies are expected to show industry-leading free cash flow (FCF) to enterprise value yields, with Talos at 40.7%, SM at 37.1%, and Civitas at 31.2% by 2027 [3] Group 2 - Despite a muted outlook for crude oil, JPMorgan identifies high-conviction upside in overlooked energy equities, suggesting potential for significant returns for investors willing to accept volatility [4] - Civitas Resources Inc is projected to have a 35% upside to $45, SM Energy Co a 24% upside to $35, and Talos Energy Inc an 18% upside to $11 [6] Group 3 - JPMorgan outlines three reasons for its cautious stance on oil prices, including a low probability of an all-out attack on Iran, the economic implications of closing the Strait of Hormuz, and the financial constraints faced by Gulf nations [5]