Government Shutdown Duration & Resolution - Strigus Strategus Securities predicts the government shutdown could extend into the third week of October [1] - The shutdown's resolution is anticipated when missed paychecks create real pressure [5] - Historically, government shutdowns resolve after paychecks are missed [7] Political Dynamics & Incentives - Democrats see the budget fight as an opportunity to challenge policies, specifically ACA subsidies, potentially leading to premium increases [2] - Republicans are unwilling to negotiate on healthcare reform until the government reopens [3] - A potential catalyst for resolution could be some senators advocating to reopen the government [3] - Watching today's vote is crucial; four or five Democrats voting to keep the government open could signal a shorter shutdown [4] Economic & External Factors - The economy is softening, and crucial data like jobs and inflation numbers are unavailable during the shutdown [7] - Potential catalysts like hurricanes or geopolitical pressures (e.g., Russia challenging NATO) could influence the situation [6] - Missing military payments on October 15th will increase pressure [5]