Core Insights - The Trump administration is actively seeking government insiders in Cuba to facilitate a political deal aimed at removing the Communist leadership by the end of the year, viewing this as a strategic move following the situation in Venezuela [1][2][3] Geopolitical Context - The U.S. perceives Cuba as a potential geopolitical battleground, believing that the recent ousting of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela has made Cuba's Communist regime more vulnerable than in decades, particularly due to economic stress from the collapse of its key economic partner [2][8] - U.S. officials are focusing on identifying reform-minded figures within the Cuban government who may be open to negotiating a transfer of power [3][7] Economic Conditions - The Cuban economy is under significant strain, facing chronic shortages, power outages, and a decline in oil supply due to reduced exports from Venezuela and tightened U.S. sanctions [8] - Analysts and residents have raised concerns about the resilience of the Cuban government amid deepening economic hardship [8] U.S. Strategy and Actions - The U.S. strategy includes leveraging internal dissent within Cuba, as demonstrated by the operation in Venezuela that resulted in the capture of Maduro, which was aided by an insider [5][6] - Trump has publicly urged Cuban leaders to negotiate with the U.S., emphasizing the urgency of making a deal before it is too late, while also tightening economic and diplomatic pressure on Cuba [4][8] Cuban Government Response - Cuban leaders have rejected U.S. pressure, with mass demonstrations occurring in Havana against U.S. actions and sanctions, and President Miguel Díaz-Canel affirming the government's resolve [9][11] - The Cuban state has historically suppressed dissent despite widespread poverty, with only two major protest movements recorded in recent decades [12] Strategic Resources - Cuba possesses significant untapped reserves of nickel and cobalt, essential for electric vehicle batteries and advanced defense systems, which the U.S. seeks to secure outside of Chinese supply chains [13][14] - The island's geographic position is strategically valuable, lying adjacent to key maritime routes that are vital for global trade [15]