Precious metal futures have fallen back after being strong overnight.Precious metals had gained on geopolitical turmoil, as well as a softer dollar, says Li Xing of Exness in a note."Gold continues to benefit from a weaker dollar as expectations of U.S. monetary easing weigh on the currency and treasury yields," says Xing. "Markets currently expect the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged in January, but still price in two cuts by the end of 2026." ...

Joining us now is Arjun Merty, partner at Veritin. Arjun, a lot of this seems to be driven by the macro and uh certainly in this administration, the headlines can change quickly. How much can investors bank on this.>> John, we've been here before. We've had a bunch of bouts of geopolitical turmoil, both bullish and bearish. Bullish, the sanctions on Russia announced over the weekend.We saw Israel bomb Iran. And previously we've had bearish headlines whether it was liberation day tariffs or spiking uh China ...

Core Viewpoint - The current oil market is experiencing a bottoming phase, influenced by geopolitical events and macroeconomic factors, with expectations of a structural bottom being reached in the next one to six months [3][4][5]. Geopolitical Influence - Recent geopolitical events, such as sanctions on Russia and military actions in the Middle East, have historically led to volatility in oil prices, but investors are advised to look beyond these headlines [1][2]. Market Demand and Supply Dynamics - Global demand for oil is not sharply increasing, but developing market demand is performing better than anticipated, while OPEC has released oil back into the market, contributing to current supply dynamics [3][4]. - There is a belief that the oil market is not as oversupplied as some analysts suggest, although a degree of oversupply is expected in the coming months [5][6]. Price Predictions - Short-term price predictions are challenging, with potential for prices to dip below $50 temporarily, but any low prices are expected to be short-lived [5]. - The expectation is that the oil trade could become more sustainable as the market works through the current downturn, which has persisted since the peak related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict [5]. Seasonal Factors - Weather conditions, particularly winter temperatures, will play a significant role in the energy trade, affecting both oil and natural gas markets [6][7]. - A colder winter could lead to a quicker market bottom, while a warmer winter may delay recovery until spring [7].