Group 1 - Geopolitical factors are significant, but the 2026 energy markets are influenced by more than just headlines, indicating a complex landscape ahead [1] - The year 2026 will see the largest supply expansion in history, with traders preparing for a global surplus, which may lead to volatility in Henry Hub prices due to potential project delays [1] - Oil supply from countries like Ghana, Canada, and Brazil is increasing, presenting a dilemma for OPEC Plus regarding whether to lower output or accept lower oil prices [1] Group 2 - China's policies, including crude stockpiling and refined product export licenses, have the potential to drastically alter global market fundamentals overnight [2] - The correlation between the US dollar and oil prices may be tested, with central bank actions potentially leading to significant price movements for WTI in 2026 [2] - The demand for electricity driven by data centers is at its highest in 15 years, linking the AI boom to energy needs and influencing oil markets [2]