Summary of Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) Update / Briefing July 29, 2025 Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) - **Industry**: Air Cargo and Logistics Key Points and Arguments Air Market Dynamics - The air market update focuses on the Americas, discussing capacity, demand, and geopolitical influences affecting air cargo [6][7] - Global air capacity grew by 4% in the first half of 2025 compared to 2024, with a notable 44% increase on the Transpacific route [8][9] - Freighter capacity specifically saw a decline of 3% in both directions between Asia and the US, while freighter deployment to Europe increased by 8% [11][12] - The ecommerce sector is experiencing a shift, with a significant reduction in ecommerce volumes flying into the US due to the end of de minimis exemptions [29][30] Geopolitical and Trade Influences - Geopolitical tensions and trade barriers are reshaping air cargo routes, with a notable shift from US-bound cargo to Europe and Southeast Asia [36][38] - The ongoing trade negotiations and tariff changes are creating uncertainty, impacting supply chains and air freight demand [47][61] - The Chinese economy is facing multiple headwinds, affecting its trade relationships and demand for air cargo services [51][52] Capacity and Demand Trends - The demand for air freight has been healthy, with a 6.6% growth in global air demand in Q1 2025, but is expected to level off to around 3-4% for the rest of the year [21][24] - The inventory-to-sales ratio is a critical indicator, with lower inventory levels indicating higher demand for air freight [23] - Vietnam has emerged as a significant exporter to the US, with a 55% growth in the first five months of 2025 compared to 2024, driven by the tech sector [44][45] Future Outlook - The expectation for new aircraft deliveries has been pushed back to 2027-2028, leading to an aging fleet and increased maintenance needs [19][20] - The air cargo market is expected to continue adjusting to shifting trade patterns, with potential increases in rates for US outbound cargo if demand rises without corresponding capacity [84][85] - The geopolitical landscape is likely to remain volatile, impacting global supply chains and air freight dynamics [75][76] Other Important Insights - The webinar highlighted the importance of adapting to changing trade policies and the need for companies to reassess their supply chain strategies in light of geopolitical tensions [58][60] - The discussion emphasized the role of ecommerce in driving air cargo demand and the challenges faced by companies in navigating regulatory changes [29][30][31] - The potential for increased investment in infrastructure, particularly in Vietnam, to support growing demand was noted as a positive development [45][46]