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Is Gold In A Bubble?
Forbesยท 2025-10-17 16:26
Core Insights - The price of gold has significantly increased over the past 65 years, with a rise of over 1,200 times in Indian Rupees and about 115 times in US dollars, indicating gold's role as a store of value [1][2] - The historical context of gold as a protective asset against currency debasement is emphasized, particularly in countries with a history of fiscal irresponsibility [3][4] - The current economic environment suggests a regime shift towards inflation and increased volatility, making gold an attractive investment option [4][10] Gold as a Store of Value - Gold has proven to be a superior investment compared to holding cash in depreciating currencies, particularly in countries like India where inflation has eroded purchasing power [2][3] - The cultural significance of gold in India, where it is often gifted during significant life events, reinforces its status as a valuable asset [2] Economic Context - The narrative highlights a long history of fiscal irresponsibility and money printing outside the US, leading to a reliance on hard assets like gold for protection against currency devaluation [3][9] - The shift in global political dynamics, including the rise of BRICS nations, is driving demand for gold as a hedge against US dominance [4][9] Investment Implications - Gold is characterized as both a "Giffen" good and a "Veblen" good, where demand increases with rising prices, particularly in lower-income countries [5][6] - The potential for gold to serve as a hedge against inflation and central bank policies is underscored, with a suggestion that it may be the only reliable asset until new currency blocs emerge [9][10] Future Outlook - The current economic regime is expected to resemble the inflationary period of the 1960s to 1980s, with rising yields and increased market volatility [10] - There is a cautionary note regarding the potential for a gold price collapse in the future, but for now, it remains a rational investment choice amid economic uncertainty [11][12]