Core Viewpoint - Crude oil and gasoline prices have increased due to geopolitical tensions and a decline in active US oil rigs, which suggests a potential decrease in crude production in the near term [2][4]. Group 1: Price Movements - January WTI crude oil closed up by $0.51 (+0.91%) and January RBOB gasoline closed up by $0.0069 (+0.41%) on Friday [1]. - Crude oil prices are supported by heightened geopolitical risks in Venezuela and Russia, alongside a stock market rally that boosts optimism about energy demand [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The Baker Hughes weekly report indicated that active US oil rigs fell to a 4.25-year low, which is expected to lead to lower crude production [2]. - A bearish global supply outlook continues to limit the upside potential for crude prices, with the crude crack spread falling to a 6-month low, discouraging refiners from purchasing crude oil [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The escalation of geopolitical tensions, including a blockade of sanctioned oil tankers to and from Venezuela and potential increased sanctions on Russian energy exports, is supportive of crude prices [4]. - Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and tankers have exacerbated fuel shortages in Russia, limiting its crude export capabilities and lowering global oil supplies [6].