The S&P 500 finished the month of October on a positive note, ultimately finishing up 2.3% from September. The index posted a weekly gain of 0.7%, its fourth in the past five weeks. Here is a snapshot of the index from the past week: The table below summarizes the number of record highs reached each year dating back to 2013. Here is a snapshot of the index from the past six months with a 50-day moving average: S&P 500: A Perspective on Drawdowns For a sense of the correlation between the closing price and i ...

Core Insights - The S&P 500 index reached a historic high of 6,800, closing at a record high and posting a weekly gain of 1.9%, marking its third gain in the last four weeks [1] - The S&P 500 has shown significant resilience since the Global Financial Crisis, with a notable recovery period that took over five years to reach a new all-time high [1][2] - Year-to-date performance shows the S&P 500 up 15.73%, while the S&P Equal Weight Index is up 9.45%, indicating a disparity in performance between market cap-weighted and equal-weighted indices [4] Group 1: Historical Performance - The S&P 500 reached an all-time high of 1,565.15 on October 9, 2007, before experiencing a decline of approximately 57% to 676.53 by March 9, 2009, during the Global Financial Crisis [1] - The index took over five years to recover, reaching a new high of 1,569.19 on March 28, 2013 [1] - Recent selloffs in 2022 are highlighted when analyzing performance excluding the Global Financial Crisis [2] Group 2: Volatility Analysis - The S&P 500 experienced its largest intraday price volatility of 10.77% on April 9, 2023, since December 24, 2018 [3] - The average percent change from intraday low to high over the past 20 days is 1.04%, indicating a trend in volatility [3] Group 3: Index Comparison - The S&P 500 is a market cap-weighted index comprising the 500 largest U.S. stocks across 11 sectors, while the S&P Equal Weight Index gives equal weight to each constituent [4] - The performance disparity between the two indices suggests differing market dynamics and investor sentiment [4]

Core Insights - The S&P 500 started the week with a significant gain, marking its largest daily increase in over four months, and finished the week up 1.7% from the previous Friday [1] - Historical context shows that the S&P 500 experienced a major drop of approximately 57% during the Global Financial Crisis, taking over five years to reach a new all-time high [1][2] - The S&P 500 has shown resilience, remaining above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages since early May 2023, indicating a positive trend [2] Performance Analysis - Year-to-date, the S&P 500 has increased by 13.55%, while the S&P Equal Weight Index has risen by 7.61%, highlighting the performance disparity between market cap-weighted and equally weighted indices [4] - The S&P 500 has recorded a notable number of days with 1% or greater changes, reflecting its volatility and market dynamics [2][3] Volatility Insights - The S&P 500 experienced its largest intraday price volatility of 10.77% on April 9, 2023, since December 2018, indicating significant market fluctuations [3] - The average percent change from intraday low to high over the past 20 days has been 1.02%, showcasing ongoing volatility in the index [3]

Market Timing and Historical Context - The difficulty of timing the market is highlighted, emphasizing the need to exit and re-enter at the right times, which is challenging [1] - Historical stock market crashes illustrate the unpredictability of stocks in the near term, making market timing a risky endeavor [2] - The S&P 500 index's performance during the dot-com bubble and subsequent crash serves as a reminder of the potential for significant losses [3][4] Labor Market Insights - Private sector job losses were reported, with a decline of 32,000 jobs in September, primarily in small and mid-sized businesses [9] - Hiring intentions have weakened, with the lowest job addition plans for September since 2011, indicating a cooling labor market [10] - Job openings increased slightly to 7.23 million in August, suggesting ongoing demand for labor despite a cooling market [11] Consumer Confidence and Spending - Consumer confidence has decreased, with a notable drop in perceptions of job availability, reflecting a cooling labor market [14][15] - Despite weak consumer sentiment, consumer spending data remains strong, indicating a disconnect between sentiment and actual spending behavior [24] Economic Growth and Market Outlook - The long-term outlook for the stock market remains positive, driven by expectations of earnings growth [21] - While demand for goods and services is still positive, economic growth has normalized from previous high levels [23] - The U.S. stock market may outperform the economy in the near term due to companies adjusting cost structures and achieving positive operating leverage [25]

Group 1: S&P 500 Performance - The S&P 500 posted four consecutive days of gains before a slight decline on Friday, finishing the week up 1.6%, marking its fifth weekly gain in the past six weeks [1] - The index reached a record high of 1565.15 on October 9, 2007, before experiencing a significant drop of approximately 57% to 676.53 on March 9, 2009, during the Global Financial Crisis [1] - It took over five years for the index to reach a new all-time high of 1569.19 on March 28, 2013 [1] Group 2: Volatility and Moving Averages - The S&P 500 has been above the 50-day moving average since May 1 and above the 200-day moving average since May 12, with the 50-day moving average surpassing the 200-day moving average since July 1 [2] - The index experienced its largest intraday price volatility of 10.77% on April 9, 2023, since December 24, 2018, when it was 19.10% [3] - The average percent change from the intraday low to the intraday high over the past 20 days is 0.71% [3] Group 3: Comparison with Equal Weight Index - The S&P 500 is up 12.20% year to date, while the S&P Equal Weight Index is up 7.81% year to date [4]

Market Concerns - Two former US Treasury chiefs highlighted potential threats to the $29 trillion Treasuries market [1] - Concerns include an unsustainable fiscal path and issues within the Washington political system [1]

On both sides of the Atlantic, key provisions put into place to keep banks safe after the global financial crisis are on the way out https://t.co/d2gVkVrOYx ...