Core Insights - The report by Binance Research indicates that the total cryptocurrency market capitalization surpassed $4 trillion for the first time in 2025, with Bitcoin reaching an all-time high, although the market ultimately declined by approximately 7.9% due to macroeconomic uncertainties [1] - Bitcoin exhibited characteristics of strong asset properties but weak on-chain activity, with net inflows into U.S. spot ETFs exceeding $21 billion, while the number of active addresses decreased by 16% year-over-year [1] - The report forecasts that global monetary easing and deregulation in 2026 will drive a "risk reset" in the market, with the establishment of a U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve potentially serving as a key catalyst [1]

Monetary Easing Trends - More than 90% of the world's central banks have either cut rates or held them steady for 12 consecutive months, a rare occurrence in the past 35 years [1][3] - Central banks have implemented a total of 316 rate cuts from 2023 through early 2025, surpassing the 313 cuts during the 2008-2010 financial crisis [4] Bitcoin and Liquidity - Despite the global expansion of liquidity, Bitcoin has decoupled from the growth in the money supply since mid-2025, raising questions about its future response to capital influx [2][5] - Historically, coordinated monetary easing has led to increases in asset prices, particularly in risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies, but Bitcoin's response has been muted compared to previous cycles [5] Market Timing and Predictions - Analysts note that Bitcoin typically lags behind global liquidity increases by 60 to 70 days, suggesting that the current monetary expansion may delay a Bitcoin rally until late 2025 or 2026 [6] - A potential financial shock scenario is outlined for 2026, which aligns with historical cycles such as the Benner Cycle, indicating a possible market peak [7][8] Global Economic Stress Points - Several global stress points are converging towards 2026, including US Treasury funding issues, Japan's yen carry-trade risk, and China's heavy credit leverage, which could lead to systemic crises if simultaneous disruptions occur [8][9] - A Treasury funding shock may arise from weak US bond auctions, with record debt issuance expected in 2026 as deficits grow and foreign demand declines, echoing past financial crises [9]