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The Bull Market Isn't Over: Why 2026 Could Still Deliver Double-Digit Gains
Youtube· 2025-12-29 20:50
Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 has shown strong momentum, reaching new all-time highs, and is expected to continue this trend into 2026 with projected gains of 12% to 15% [7][10]. Market Momentum - The S&P 500 has been up for seven consecutive months, with potential for an eighth month in December, indicating a robust market despite being stretched [2]. - Global participation in market gains is noted, with other countries also making new highs, suggesting a broader bullish sentiment [2]. Bull Market Characteristics - The current bull market in the US is entering its fourth year, with historical data indicating that bull markets of this length typically last an average of eight years [6]. - Key drivers of this bull market are identified as strong earnings and profit margins, with recent earnings seasons showing new highs in profit margins [4][5]. Sector Performance - A rotation in sector performance is observed, with industrials and financials taking the lead as tech stocks pull back slightly [3][11]. - The strategy for 2026 includes a focus on cyclicals, particularly in industrials, financials, and technology, while maintaining an equal weight in tech exposure [12][13]. International Markets - European markets have outperformed the US, with the German DAX breaking out to levels not seen since 2007, indicating potential for continued strong performance relative to the US [14][18]. - A diversified portfolio with a significant allocation to developed international markets is recommended, as these markets may continue to perform well [16][19]. Commodities and Investor Sentiment - Gold and silver have seen significant price increases, with gold up 70% and silver up 170% for the year, indicating strong investor sentiment [21]. - The potential for both gold and the stock market to rise together is highlighted, suggesting a favorable environment for commodities [22]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to dollar-cost average into the market to mitigate risks associated with volatility and potential pullbacks [34][36]. - Maintaining a diversified portfolio is emphasized, with a recommendation to explore sectors beyond the well-known tech giants [35].