Drivers in half of U.S. states are enjoying average gasoline prices below $3 per gallon this Thanksgiving holiday, and prices at the pump are set to further decline going into Christmas. Lower crude oil prices, cheaper winter blends, weaker seasonal demand despite the bump in Thanksgiving travel, and refineries completing autumn maintenance have converged to push the national average down to $3.055 per gallon of regular gasoline on November 25, just as millions of Americans are hitting or preparing to hit ...

Core Insights - Oil prices increased by more than $1 a barrel due to stalled export negotiations from Iraq's Kurdistan, alleviating concerns about global oversupply [1][2] - Brent crude futures rose by $1.06 (1.6%) to $67.63 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude increased by $1.13 (1.8%) to $63.41 per barrel [1] Oil Export Dynamics - Pipeline oil exports from Iraq's Kurdistan to Turkey remain halted, with a deal to resume exports of approximately 230,000 barrels per day still pending [2] - The deadlock has persisted since March 2023, as key producers are seeking debt repayment guarantees [2] Market Sentiment - Analysts indicate that the market reacted negatively to initial reports of a Kurdistan deal, but the absence of a finalized agreement has removed those anticipated barrels from the market [3] - The global oil market is facing challenges from elevated supply and slowing demand, influenced by the rise of electric vehicles and economic pressures from U.S. tariffs [3] Supply Outlook - The International Energy Agency forecasts a rapid increase in world oil supply this year, with a potential surplus expanding by 2026 due to increased output from OPEC+ and non-OPEC sources [4] - Traders are closely monitoring the European Union's potential stricter sanctions on Russian oil exports and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [4] Inventory Trends - Low OECD oil inventories are seen as a supportive factor for prices, while increased crude exports from OPEC+ and the absence of new sanctions on Russian oil exports pose challenges [5] - Recent data indicates a decline in U.S. crude and gasoline stocks, with crude stocks falling by 3.82 million barrels and gasoline inventories decreasing by 1.05 million barrels [6]