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Aris Mining vs. Eldorado: Which Gold Mining Stock has Greater Upside?
ZACKS· 2025-12-30 15:35
Core Insights - Aris Mining Corporation (ARMN) and Eldorado Gold Corporation (EGO) are key players in the Zacks Mining - Gold industry, both based in Vancouver, Canada, focusing on gold extraction and operational growth through exploration and strategic partnerships [1][2]. Aris Mining (ARMN) - ARMN is enhancing its position in Latin America with increased production and mine expansions, achieving gold output of 73,236 ounces in Q3 2025, a 25% sequential increase and a 36.6% year-over-year rise, keeping it on track for a full-year guidance of 230,000-275,000 ounces [3][22]. - The Segovia mine is crucial for ARMN's growth, with a second mill boosting processing capacity, while the Marmato operation is expected to diversify production with first gold exploration anticipated in H2 2026 [4][22]. - ARMN holds a 51% interest in the Soto Norte Project in Colombia, recognized as a top undeveloped gold asset, and the Toroparu Project in Guyana, which has over 6.5 million ounces of gold resources [5][22]. - Financially, ARMN is strong with a cash balance of $417.9 million at the end of Q3, allowing for continued investment in expansion projects [6][22]. - However, ARMN faces cost pressures, with all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) rising 6.6% year-over-year to approximately $1,641 per ounce due to increased mill feed costs and higher royalties [7]. Eldorado Gold (EGO) - EGO is optimizing mine output while advancing development projects, operating four mines in Turkiye, Canada, and Greece, with a strong growth pipeline including the Skouries project [8][10]. - The Skouries project is expected to be a significant growth driver, with first production anticipated by mid-2026, projected to deliver 135,000-155,000 ounces of gold and 45-60 million pounds of copper in 2026 [9][10]. - EGO is enhancing productivity at its existing operations, including upgrades at Kisladag and the Lamaque Complex, and expanding Olympias from 500 ktpa to 650 ktpa [11][12]. - EGO's AISC rose sharply to $2,421 per ounce in Q3 2025, up from $1,513 per ounce year-over-year, prompting an upward revision of full-year AISC guidance to $1,600-$1,675 per ounce due to cost inflation [13]. Financial Performance and Valuation - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ARMN's 2025 earnings per share (EPS) indicates a growth of 297.1%, with estimates trending upward over the past 60 days [14]. - In contrast, EGO's 2025 EPS implies a year-over-year growth of 8.3%, but estimates have declined over the past 60 days [15]. - Over the past six months, ARMN's shares surged 138.2%, while EGO's stock gained 75.3% [16]. - ARMN is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 7.37X, above its median of 4.54X, while EGO's forward earnings multiple is at 8.35X, lower than its median of 10.61X [17]. Conclusion - ARMN is well-positioned for long-term growth with a strong project pipeline and financial strength, while EGO faces near-term challenges with elevated costs impacting margins [22][23]. - Given current conditions, ARMN is viewed as a more favorable investment compared to EGO, with ARMN holding a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) and EGO a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) [23].