Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced a significant increase in 2025, rising from $2,600 per ounce to over $4,300, marking a 65% return, while gold mining stocks outperformed with the VanEck Gold Miners ETF rising by 155% [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - In 2024, gold lagged behind speculative assets like big tech stocks and Bitcoin, but this trend reversed in 2025 as gold and mining stocks surged while riskier assets cooled [2][3] - The shift in market dynamics indicates that gold performs better during periods of tightening credit, which is currently evidenced by the decline in speculative assets [3][4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's rate cuts and the increase in 30-year Treasury bond yields suggest weaker credit growth, which typically leads to gold outperforming industrial commodities [4] - Historical data shows that during the 1970s, gold prices rose significantly faster than most industrial commodities, reinforcing the current outlook for gold [5] Group 3: Cost Dynamics for Gold Miners - Oliver argues that gold miners are not facing the usual cost pressures, and if gold prices continue to rise faster than input costs, profit margins should expand rather than contract [6][7] - The strong performance of gold mining stocks in 2025 is viewed as the beginning of a longer bull market rather than a peak [7]