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B vs. KGC: Which Gold Mining Stock Is the Better Pick Now?
ZACKS· 2026-02-20 14:30
Core Viewpoint - Barrick Mining Corporation and Kinross Gold Corporation are significant players in the gold mining industry, with favorable gold prices despite recent declines, making them relevant for investors seeking exposure to precious metals [1][2][3] Gold Price Environment - Geopolitical tensions, including unrest in Iran and a weaker U.S. dollar, contributed to gold prices reaching nearly $5,600 per ounce in January 2026, although they have since retreated to around $5,000 per ounce [2] - Sustained central bank purchases and expectations of interest rate cuts are likely to support gold prices amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [3] Barrick Mining Corporation - Barrick is advancing key growth projects, including Goldrush, Pueblo Viejo expansion, Fourmile, Lumwana Super Pit, and Reko Diq, which are expected to significantly enhance production [4][5] - The Goldrush mine aims for 400,000 ounces of annual production by 2028, while the Reko Diq project is projected to produce 460,000 tons of copper and 520,000 ounces of gold annually [5] - Barrick's Lumwana Super Pit expansion is expected to produce 240,000 tons of copper annually, transforming it into a Tier One copper mine [6] - The company reported cash and cash equivalents of approximately $6.7 billion at the end of Q4 2025, with operating cash flows of about $2.7 billion, up 13% year over year [7] - Barrick returned $2.4 billion to shareholders in 2025 through dividends and share repurchases, increasing its dividend to 42 cents per share for Q4 2025, a 140% increase from Q3 [8] - However, Barrick faces challenges with rising costs, with AISC increasing to $1,637 in 2025, up 10% year over year [11][12] Kinross Gold Corporation - Kinross has a strong production profile and is advancing several key development projects, including Round Mountain Phase X, Bald Mountain Redbird 2, and Kettle River-Curlew, expected to enhance production and cash flow [14][15] - These projects are projected to contribute 3 million ounces of life-of-mine production with a combined IRR of 59% and a post-tax NPV of $4.3 billion [16] - Kinross reported strong liquidity of $3.5 billion and generated record free cash flow of approximately $2.5 billion in 2025, returning $752.4 million to shareholders [18] - The company repaid $700 million of debt in 2025 and has $1.7 billion in available credit, positioning it well for growth [19] - Kinross increased its quarterly dividend by 14% to 16 cents per share, targeting a return of 40% of free cash flow through buybacks and dividends in 2026 [20] - Kinross also faces higher production costs, with AISC reaching $1,825 per ounce in Q4 2025, a 21% increase year over year [21] Stock Performance and Valuation - Barrick's stock has increased by 157.7% over the past year, while Kinross's stock has risen by 189.8%, outperforming the Zacks Mining - Gold industry's increase of 135.9% [22] - Barrick is trading at a forward earnings multiple of 13.12, representing a 6% discount compared to the industry average [25] - Kinross is trading at a forward earnings multiple of 13.46, slightly below the industry average [23] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Barrick's 2026 sales and EPS implies a year-over-year rise of 14.6% and 48.8%, respectively [27] - Kinross's 2026 sales and EPS estimates imply growth of 9.2% and 40.2%, respectively [28] Investment Consideration - Both Barrick and Kinross are well-positioned to benefit from favorable gold prices, with strong development pipelines and financial health [31] - Barrick may have an edge due to its attractive valuation and higher growth projections, making it a more favorable option for investors seeking exposure to the gold sector [31]