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What a government shutdown means for markets, plus ADP reports US private payrolls drop by 32,000
Youtube· 2025-10-01 14:53
Welcome to Yahoo Finance's flagship show, The Morning Brief. I'm Julie Heyman. Let's get to the three things you need to know today.First up, the US government has shut down for the first time in 7 years. Republicans and Democrats failed to reach an agreement on a spending deal, and neither side is backing down. Republicans are pushing for an unconditional short-term funding extension to keep the government open as they hash out their differences.Democratic leaders are framing the fight as a clash over heal ...
How shutdowns impact stocks and bonds
Youtube· 2025-09-30 19:42
Group 1 - A government shutdown occurs when Congress fails to pass a budget or a short-term funding solution, leading to a temporary lapse in funding while essential services continue to operate [1][2] - The impact of a shutdown includes delays in federal permits, loan approvals, and data releases such as the monthly jobs report, but it does not equate to a government default on debt [2][3] - Historical data shows that during the 11 US shutdowns since 1980, stock market reactions tend to be muted in the short term, with median returns remaining small until about a month after the shutdown [4][5] Group 2 - The US 10-year Treasury note yield does not show significant changes immediately before or after a shutdown, but typically experiences a median drop of 19 basis points one month after the shutdown begins [7][9] - Short-term interest rates exhibit mixed movements around the time of a shutdown, but tend to decrease about two-thirds of the time one year later, with a median drop of 39 basis points [9][10] - The length of a shutdown can negatively impact growth expectations and lead to lower long-term rates, while delays in data releases can cause markets to rely more on alternative data sources [11][12]