Core Insights - Global iron ore output is projected to increase by 1.9% in 2025, reaching 2,612.7 million tonnes, despite a decline in China's production due to weak domestic steel demand and construction slowdown [1] - The growth in iron ore production will be supported by rising outputs from India, Australia, Brazil, and emerging producers like Guinea, Iran, and Liberia [1] Group 1: Global Production Trends - Global iron ore output is expected to grow by 4.5% in 2026, reaching 2,728.9 million tonnes, driven by project ramp-ups in Guinea and Australia, along with expansions in Brazil [2] - China's iron ore output is anticipated to remain flat in 2025, with only a marginal growth of 0.5% [2] Group 2: Regional Contributions - The Republic of Guinea is emerging as a significant player, with expected iron ore output of 35.4 million tonnes in 2026, up from 2.9 million tonnes in 2025, supported by the Simandou projects [3] - Australia's output is projected to grow by 2.6% in 2026, with expectations to reach 1.1 billion tonnes by 2035, maintaining its position as the largest global producer [4] - Brazil's growth will be led by Vale, targeting 340 million to 360 million tonnes by 2026, alongside expansions at other major mines [5] Group 3: India's Role - India is expected to be the largest driver of global supply growth in 2026, with a projected output increase of 3.6% to 318.5 million tonnes, supported by strong domestic steel demand and investment momentum [5] - India's goal to scale steelmaking capacity to 300 million tonnes by FY2030-31 emphasizes the need for reliable iron ore availability, reinforcing its strategic role in the market [6] - The adoption of green steel technologies positions iron ore as a key commodity in India's long-term decarbonization agenda [6]