Group 1 - The gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a 1.4 percent annual rate in the last quarter of the year [1] - The growth was slowed by the effects of the government shutdown [1]

Commodities - Oil prices reached year-to-date highs of US$67.01, driven by geopolitical tensions following US President Trump's warning to Iran regarding nuclear negotiations [1] Currency and Labor Market - The USD index extended its recent gains, marking a fourth consecutive day of increases with a 0.1% rise [2] - US weekly jobless claims for the week ending February 14 were reported at 206,000, down from a revised 229,000, indicating labor market resilience [2] - The US economy added 130,000 new jobs in January, with the unemployment rate decreasing to 4.3% [2] Economic Data and Forecasts - The upcoming US Q4 GDP first estimate is expected to show a growth rate of 3.0%, a deceleration from Q3's 4.4% but still considered healthy [4] - The GDP deflator is projected to decrease to 2.9% from 3.7% [4] - The PCE price index is anticipated to remain unchanged at 2.8% year-on-year, with a modest increase in month-on-month figures [5] Federal Reserve Implications - An upside surprise in PCE data could support the Fed's current stance and strengthen the USD, while softer inflation could have the opposite effect [6]

The yen rebounded modestly after weaker-than-expected Japan’s gross domestic product data triggered selling on Monday. https://t.co/SqmgQVRwM6 ...

Core Viewpoint - Investors are closely monitoring U.S. gross domestic product data, PCE inflation figures, and minutes from the Federal Reserve's last meeting to assess the timing of the next interest-rate cut [1] Group 1 - The upcoming U.S. gross domestic product data is anticipated by investors [1] - PCE inflation figures are also awaited as part of the economic indicators [1] - Minutes from the Federal Reserve's last meeting are expected to provide insights into future monetary policy [1]

Canada's gross domestic product likely shrunk in the fourth quarter, highlighting choppy performance as the trade-dependent economy adjusts to US tariffs https://t.co/V5KUQeTUhc ...

Labor Market Overview - The U.S. labor market ended 2025 with lower-than-expected job creation, adding 50,000 nonfarm payrolls in December, down from a revised 56,000 in November and below the Dow Jones estimate of 73,000 [1] - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.4%, better than the forecast of 4.5%, while a broader measure of unemployment fell to 8.4%, down 0.3 percentage points from November [2] Employment Trends - The report indicates a mixed labor market, with companies showing low hiring levels but households reporting employment gains, suggesting a cautious hiring environment [3] - For the full year, payroll gains averaged 49,000 per month, significantly lower than the 168,000 average in 2024 [4] Sector Performance - Job gains in December were led by the restaurant and bar sector, which added 27,000 jobs, followed by healthcare with 21,000 and social assistance with 17,000, while retail saw a decline of 25,000 jobs [4] Wage Growth - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% for December, aligning with forecasts, while the annual increase reached 3.8%, exceeding expectations by 0.2 percentage points [4] Economic Indicators - The Atlanta Fed's measure indicates a projected GDP growth of 5.4% annualized in Q4, following a 4.3% growth rate in Q3, reflecting strong consumer spending during the holiday season [6] - Online spending during the holiday season rose by 6.8% year-over-year, reaching a record $257.8 billion [6] Federal Reserve Outlook - Federal Reserve officials are closely monitoring the labor market for guidance on interest rate decisions, with expectations that the Fed will maintain current rates following recent cuts [5][7]

Mortgage Rates and Economic Indicators - Mortgage rates have slightly decreased, with the average 30-year mortgage rate at 6.18%, down from 6.21% the previous week, while the 15-year mortgage rate increased to 5.5% from 5.47% [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield, which influences mortgage rates, has shown volatility due to mixed economic data, including a surprising easing of inflation and a strong GDP growth of 4.3% in the third quarter [2] - Mortgage rates have remained stable around 6.2% since mid-September, with expectations of minimal changes in the final week of the year due to a lighter holiday trading schedule [3] Housing Market Activity - The housing market is experiencing a slow period, with expectations of limited fluctuations in mortgage rates during traditionally slow homebuying months [4] - Mortgage applications for home purchases and refinancing have decreased, with purchase applications down 4% and refinancing applications down 6% as the year concludes [4]

Key dates this week 🗓️Dec 9 ➡️ 🇺🇸 JOLTS Job OpeningsDec 10 ➡️ 🇺🇸 Fed Interest Rate DecisionDec 12 ➡️ 🇬🇧 Gross Domestic Product MoMWhich dates are you watching? 👀 ...

Rising tensions with China may shave about 0.2 percentage point off Japan’s gross domestic product growth if tourism and the export of consumer goods to the world’s second-largest economy decline, according to economists at Goldman Sachs https://t.co/237Uanx2e7 ...

Key dates this week 🗓️Nov 25 ➡️ 🇺🇸 CB Consumer ConfidenceNov 26 ➡️ 🇺🇸 Gross Domestic Product QoQNov 27 ➡️ 🇩🇪 GfK Consumer ConfidenceWhich dates are you watching? 👀 ...