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SENEA Upgrades to Outperform on Volume, Margin & EPS Tailwinds
ZACKSยท 2025-09-03 18:21
Core Viewpoint - Seneca Foods Corporation (SENEA) has been upgraded to an "Outperform" rating due to expected volume recovery from a key co-pack customer, benefits from deleveraging reducing interest expenses, and a normalization in gross margins as high-cost inventory dissipates, enhancing its earnings power and market position in packaged fruits and vegetables across North America [1] Volume Recovery - In the first quarter of fiscal 2026, Seneca's sales decreased by 2.4% year over year to $297.5 million, down from $304.7 million, primarily due to shipment disruptions from a key co-pack customer [2] - Management anticipates that these volumes will recover under the existing contractual relationship, providing a near-term boost to revenue as fiscal 2026 progresses [2] - Resilient consumer demand for shelf-stable vegetables and snacks is expected to stabilize revenue momentum [2] Interest Expense Decline - Seneca experienced a significant reduction in interest expense, which fell by 47.7% year over year to $5.4 million from $10.3 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, due to aggressive debt paydown and refinancing [3] - Long-term debt has been reduced to $259.5 million, with the revolver refinanced through 2029, positioning the company for continued interest savings over the next several quarters [3] - This deleveraging, along with steady operating cash flow, is expected to provide an uplift in earnings per share (EPS) and enhance balance sheet flexibility [3] Gross Margin Recovery - Gross margin improved to 14.1% in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, up from 14% a year ago, despite challenges from high-cost inventory due to unfavorable weather conditions [4] - Management noted progress in selling through high-cost inventory, with expectations for a normalized growing season in 2025 to ease input pressures and improve gross margin [4] - An $11.8 million LIFO credit was recorded in the quarter compared to $2.9 million last year, contributing to margin stability [4] Structural Positioning and Outlook - Seneca benefits from a large and resilient demand base for shelf-stable foods, which continue to see steady consumer preference across various channels [7] - The company's scale in private-label and branded categories, bolstered by the Green Giant shelf-stable vegetable line, enhances its market presence [7] - Disciplined working capital management and debt reduction have improved free cash flow visibility, allowing for reinvestment in operations while reducing financial risk [8]