Fiscal Policy & Economic Outlook - UK's fiscal watchdog indicated Chancellor's headroom doubled to nearly £22 billion [1] - Growth downgraded, welfare bill soaring, living standards to rise more slowly than expected [2] - Tax burden rising to its highest since records began just after World War II, reaching 38% of GDP [2] - Stealth tax rise through freezing personal tax thresholds, potentially creating millions of new taxpayers [3] Political & Social Impact - Removal of the two-child benefit cap, potentially lifting hundreds of thousands out of poverty [4] - Chancellor faces questions on breaking manifesto pledge not to raise income tax [3] Market Reaction & Risks - Budget aims to bring down inflation, but the gamble is whether the market buys the backloading of fiscal tightening [4] - Gilt yields fell and the pound rose against the dollar following the OBR leak and speech [5] - UK gilts will be incredibly exposed to international crosscurrents with Thanksgiving following this budget [5]