Market Analysis - Some analysts predict Bitcoin will fall below $100 thousand and enter a bear market in 2026 based on the 4-year halving cycle [1] - The industry believes relying solely on the 4-year halving cycle to predict market tops is a misunderstanding, as three cycles are insufficient for a reliable pattern [1] - The S2F model predicts the average price level in a halving cycle, not specific tops or bottoms [1] - The industry suggests the peak could occur in 2026, 2027, or 2028, emphasizing the importance of the average price level [1] Technical Indicators - A fundamental Bitcoin phase transition has not yet occurred in the current cycle [2] - Realized price (grey line) has not diverged from the 200-week moving average (black line), and RSI has not exceeded 80 (red) [2] - The industry suggests a significant price jump is pending, or the market has transitioned to a more stable regime dominated by institutions [2] - A major bear market is unlikely without a significant price surge (RSI 80+ and realized price diverging from the 200-week moving average) [2] Institutional Influence - The industry notes a potential shift towards a more stable price regime influenced by institutional mandates (e g 1%-10% BTC) and rebalancing strategies [2] - Institutional strategies involve selling after price increases and buying after price decreases to maintain target exposures [2]