Core Insights - Bitcoin has experienced significant price weakness due to a combination of factors including risk-off investor sentiment, a hawkish Federal Reserve, stalled regulatory efforts, reduced institutional interest, and profit-taking by long-term holders [1][2][4] Market Performance - Bitcoin's price has dropped from $126,000 to below $82,200 since early October, with a slight rebound to nearly $88,500 recently [2] - The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has decreased by approximately 24%, equating to a loss of $1 trillion since its peak in October [3] Key Factors Influencing Bitcoin's Decline - **Declining Risk Appetite**: Bitcoin's decline mirrors that of tech stocks and other risk assets, influenced by macroeconomic concerns and fears regarding overvalued AI companies [4] - **Federal Reserve's Stance**: The performance of Bitcoin is negatively impacted by the Fed's mixed signals regarding interest rate cuts, as Bitcoin typically thrives in low interest rate environments [4] - **Regulatory Stagnation**: The stalled progress of the CLARITY Act, following the earlier success of the GENIUS Act, may hinder crypto adoption [4] - **Institutional Withdrawal**: Following a record liquidation day, institutional investors have been retreating from the crypto market, leading to decreased liquidity and challenges in price recovery [4] - **Profit-Taking by Holders**: Long-term holders have sold approximately 800,000 BTC in the past month, marking the largest sell-off since January 2024 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Gold price remains stable within a narrow range as bullish momentum is insufficient to challenge the support-turned-resistance level of $4,200, influenced by a stronger US dollar and expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve [1] Group 1 - The current gold price is unable to break through the $4,200 level, indicating a lack of bullish momentum in the market [1] - A stronger US dollar is contributing to the pressure on gold prices, making it more expensive for holders of other currencies [1] - Market expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve are impacting investor sentiment towards gold, as higher interest rates typically reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold [1]