Global Markets Research US Economic Weekly 30 January 2026 President Trump has nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh to be Powell's replacement as chair. We expect Warsh will be dovish in the near term as Fed chair, with political pressure to maintain easy financial conditions outweighing his long-held hawkish views. Economics - North America Warsh Case Scenario Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair Warsh is not a Trump insider, which reduces the likelihood that he will push for the drastic rate ...

President Donald Trump on Friday nominated former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh to serve as the next chair of the US central bank, a pick investors broadly view as experienced and credible but potentially less dovish than markets had expected. Warsh, who served on the Fed’s Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011 during the global financial crisis, is known as a critic of the central bank’s heavy reliance on forward guidance and its expanded balance sheet, as well as a defender of central bank independe ...

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Core Viewpoint - Markets are anticipating over two interest rate cuts in 2026, driven by expectations that labor market softness will outweigh persistent inflation pressures [1] Group 1 - The current market sentiment reflects a belief in a weakening labor market, which is influencing expectations for future monetary policy [1] - Investors are pricing in these cuts as a response to the balance between labor market conditions and inflation [1]

Core Viewpoint - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostik plans to retire at the end of his term on February 28th, which raises questions about the future direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1][4]. Group 1: Leadership Transition - The next president of the Atlanta Fed will be chosen by the board of directors, composed of business leaders and bankers from the Atlanta region, rather than being nominated by President Trump [2][3]. - Bostik has been a more hawkish voice on the Federal Reserve, advocating for only one rate cut this year due to current inflation levels [3][4]. Group 2: Historical Significance - Bostik is noted for being the first gay and first African American member of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee [5]. - He was involved in a trading scandal during his tenure, where his financial advisors conducted trades during Fed blackout periods, although he was cleared of any illegal activity by the Fed's inspector general [5][6]. Group 3: Implications for Monetary Policy - Bostik's departure may influence the Federal Reserve's approach to monetary policy in the upcoming year, particularly regarding interest rate decisions [4][6]. - The timing of his retirement coincides with the Fed board's review of contracts for bank presidents, which occurs every five years [6].