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中国房地产每周总结 - 第 35 周总结:交易略有改善,但市场情绪疲软;城市更新仍是政策制定者关注焦点-China Property Weekly Wrap_ Week 35 Wrap - Transactions improved modestly but sentiment softened; urban renewal remains policymaker focus
2025-09-03 01:22
Summary of China Property Weekly Wrap Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Property** industry, highlighting recent trends in urban development and real estate transactions. Key Highlights 1. **Policy Initiatives**: The State Council issued opinions on promoting high-quality urban development, emphasizing: - Revitalization of urban property stock through comprehensive surveys of existing buildings and land to repurpose underutilized properties [1] - Development of high-quality housing supported by improved property management services and redevelopment initiatives for urban villages and aging communities [1] 2. **Market Performance**: - Primary transactions improved modestly, with new home sales volume up **19% week-over-week (wow)** and **1% year-over-year (yoy)**, particularly in tier-2 and Central Western cities [5] - Secondary transactions remained flat, with a **1% increase wow** and **6% yoy** [5] - New home search activity declined by **0.8% wow**, while secondary visitor traffic fell by **2% wow** [2] 3. **Shanghai Performance**: - In the first week post-HPR relaxation, new home sales in Shanghai dropped by **27% wow**, but new home search activity rose by **6% wow**, indicating improved sentiment [2] 4. **Transaction Data**: - Year-to-date (YTD) primary gross floor area (GFA) sold decreased by **5% yoy**, while secondary GFA sold increased by **12% yoy** [7] - Inventory balance increased by **0.2% wow** but decreased by **3.7% from end-2024 levels**, with inventory months at **25.8** [34] 5. **Valuation Trends**: - Offshore developers' average share price fell by **4% wow**, while onshore developers also saw a **4% decline wow** [45] - Offshore coverage trades at an average **33% discount** to end-2025 estimated net asset value (NAV) [45] 6. **Completions and New Starts**: - Completions are expected to decline by **20% yoy** in August 2025, with a **10% yoy** decline projected for the full year [38] - New starts are anticipated to record a mid-teens level yoy decline in August [7] 7. **Home Appliance Sales**: Expected to decline yoy in August based on secondary sales trends across approximately 20 cities [7] Additional Insights - The report indicates a mixed sentiment in the property market, with primary market transactions showing some recovery while secondary market activity remains subdued. - The focus on urban renewal and high-quality housing development reflects a strategic shift by policymakers to enhance urban living conditions and stimulate the property market. - The decline in new home sales in Shanghai post-HPR relaxation suggests that while sentiment may be improving, actual transaction volumes are still under pressure. This summary encapsulates the key points from the China Property Weekly Wrap, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the property market in China.