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Verizon: An Undervalued Dividend Stock or a High-Yield Trap?
The Motley Foolยท 2025-04-30 08:17
Core Viewpoint - Verizon Communications is facing challenges in subscriber growth and competition, leading to a significant decline in stock price despite being a historically reliable income stock with a long history of dividend increases [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, Verizon generated 76% of its consolidated revenue from its consumer segment, with 115 million wireless retail connections, 10 million broadband connections, and approximately 3 million Fios video connections [4]. - Verizon's adjusted earnings per share (EPS) declined 2.5% to $4.59, but this still covered its $2.67 per share in dividends for the full year [8]. - For 2025, Verizon expects wireless service revenue to grow by 2% to 2.8%, adjusted EPS to rise by 0% to 3%, and adjusted EBITDA to increase by 2% to 3.5% [11]. Group 2: Subscriber Growth and Market Position - Verizon's growth in postpaid wireless subscribers has been sluggish, struggling against AT&T and T-Mobile's competitive pricing and promotions [5]. - In 2024, Verizon's total number of wireless retail postpaid subscribers grew 1.4% to 95.12 million, attributed to localized incentives and marketing campaigns [7]. - In the first quarter of 2025, Verizon lost 289,000 postpaid phone subscribers, while competitors AT&T and T-Mobile gained 324,000 and 495,000 new postpaid wireless phone subscribers, respectively [9]. Group 3: Strategic Moves - To enhance its fiber network expansion and reduce reliance on the wireless market, Verizon agreed to acquire Frontier Communications in a $20 billion deal, expected to close by the first quarter of 2026 [10]. - Verizon's ongoing promotions have pressured its margins, but it has mitigated this by trimming its workforce and divesting lower-margin businesses [7]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - Analysts expect Verizon's revenue and adjusted EPS to grow by 2% in 2025, indicating a stable outlook but requiring consistent expansion in higher-growth areas [12]. - Verizon is not considered an undervalued stock due to its anemic growth and competition, but it is not viewed as a high-yield trap either, as it generates sufficient profits to cover its dividends [13]. - The company is seen as a worthwhile income investment at current levels, with a low valuation and high yield limiting downside potential, making it suitable for dividend-driven investors [14].