You said you have your lowest exposure to credit in 40 years. The the kind of on the other times you've been underweight or the leaning crisis and right before COVID. So what does that mean practically for your investments.Does that mean that you're completely getting away from credit. Are you in investment grade but still at the lowest level. Are you moving into high yield.What does that exactly mean. Sure. First of all, if you look at the investment grade universe according to the index, it's almost $30 t ...

Market & Economic Assessment - The Fed is in a difficult position, balancing inflation pressures with calls for rate cuts, while the economy grows between 2% and 3% [2][3] - Current market conditions, including high equity prices, low volatility, and tight credit spreads, are atypical for a rate-cutting cycle [3][4] - Speculative behavior is prevalent, with tight credit spreads making fixed income investments interest rate sensitive [5] - Fiscal policy is challenging, with $37 trillion in debt and a $2 trillion deficit, while the Fed maintains a $7 trillion balance sheet [7] - Inflationary pressures persist, particularly in construction costs and wages, making a return to zero rates unlikely [8] - The long end of the yield curve signals concerns about the US fiscal situation, as the 30-year Treasury yield is higher than when Fed funds were 51/8% [10][11] Investment Strategy & Risk - The administration's policies favor risk assets, but this may not be favorable for fixed income [6][24][27] - Investors should be cautious about taking on excessive risk in fixed income portfolios, particularly through high yield credit at tight spreads [6][15] - Private credit funds raise concerns, especially the push to include illiquid assets in liquid investment vehicles, echoing concerns from 2007 [15][16][18] - Meme stock activity indicates that investors are unafraid, with one penny stock accounting for 15% of stock exchange volume [20][21] - While the overall risk environment is favorable, it is susceptible to shocks, requiring careful monitoring and liquidity [26][27][25]

Uh here to go out on that limb is Shri Kumar, the president of Shrikumar Global Strategy. Shri, it's great to have you back. Good to be back, Kelly.And yes, I am going out on a limb and on a record day to be talking about a 10% correction coming by the end of the year. But the various macro factors that I'm looking at seems to suggest that there is no way this situation can continue. What are they.We are looking at truths in a sense in three different areas. One is the Iran um and Israel war. The second is ...