Core Insights - Crypto trading activity on prediction markets, particularly Polymarket, has seen a significant decline in high-conviction trading since early January after peaking in late December and early January [1][2] Group 1: Trading Activity Trends - Daily active crypto makers on Polymarket peaked at around 40,000–45,000 wallets in early January, following a previous peak in late December when activity reached the high-30,000 range [2][3] - After January 9, daily crypto maker activity consistently declined, falling to the low-20,000 range by mid-January, with a sharp drop at the end of the observation period [3] Group 2: Bitcoin Market Engagement - Bitcoin-focused markets exhibited a similar trend, with active Bitcoin makers dropping to 2,875 wallets by January 18, down from five-figure levels earlier in the period [4][5] - This decline indicates that the slowdown in trading activity is not confined to niche crypto bets or altcoins but extends to Bitcoin, which is the most liquid category on the platform [5] Group 3: Overall Market Dynamics - Polymarket remains the dominant platform in terms of weekly prediction market users, significantly outpacing smaller competitors, with total weekly users reaching the high-200,000s to low-300,000s during peak weeks [6][7] - Despite the elevated total user numbers, the composition of activity has shifted, with a decline in maker participation in crypto markets, suggesting that traders are becoming more selective about their capital commitments [7]