Group 1: Sugar Price Trends - Sugar prices are mixed, with NY sugar up by 0.25% and London sugar down by 0.27% as they consolidate recent losses [1] - NY sugar fell to a 3-week low and London sugar dropped to a 4.25-year nearest-futures low, influenced by expectations of robust global sugar supplies [2] - Over the past seven months, NY sugar reached a 4.5-year nearest-futures low due to increased sugar output in Brazil [3] Group 2: Global Sugar Supply Outlook - BMI Group projected a global sugar surplus of 10.5 million metric tons (MMT) for 2025/26, while Covrig Analytics estimated a surplus of 4.1 MMT for 2025/25 [2] - Brazil's sugar output in the second half of September increased by 10.8% year-on-year to 3.137 million tons, with cumulative 2025-26 output rising by 0.8% year-on-year to 33.524 MMT [3] Group 3: India’s Sugar Production and Export Potential - India's Meteorological Department reported cumulative monsoon rainfall of 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, indicating a potential bumper sugar crop [4] - India's sugar production for 2025/26 is projected to increase by 19% year-on-year to 34.9 MMT, following a decline of 17.5% year-on-year in 2024/25 [4] - India may divert 4 MMT of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26, which could lead to increased exports of up to 4 MMT, exceeding earlier expectations [5]

Group 1 - Sugar prices settled lower, with NY sugar reaching a 2.5-week low and London sugar hitting a four-year nearest-futures low [2][3] - Weakness in crude oil prices and the Brazilian Real are contributing factors to the decline in sugar prices, with WTI crude dropping over 4% to a 5-month low [2] - Brazil's sugar output is projected to increase, with a reported 15.7% year-on-year rise in sugar production in the first half of September [4] Group 2 - A global sugar surplus of 4.1 million metric tons is anticipated for the 2025/26 season, negatively impacting sugar prices [3] - India's monsoon rains are expected to lead to a bumper sugar crop, with a projected 19% year-on-year increase in sugar production for 2025/26 [5] - The cumulative monsoon rain in India as of September 30 was reported at 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, marking the strongest monsoon in five years [5]