Core Insights - Experts express concerns that tariff policies may lead to an economic recession, which could reduce homebuyer demand and lower home values, although major job hubs might be less affected [1][2] - The U.S. housing market is experiencing a gradual normalization of inventory, which may stabilize or reduce home prices, despite high mortgage rates keeping many homeowners from selling [3][4] Housing Market Trends - In February, housing inventory increased by 5.1% month-over-month and 17% year-over-year, indicating a growing supply that could help stabilize home prices [3] - The median home price in the U.S. for Q2 2025 was $410,800, a decrease of $12,300 from the previous quarter, with expectations from major real estate organizations that home price growth will slow in 2025 [4] - The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index reported a year-over-year increase of 4.1% in January, followed by a 3.8% annual increase in existing home costs reported by the NAR for February [4] Economic Considerations - Concerns about a potential recession are rising, with a Deutsche Bank survey indicating a 43% probability of a U.S. recession occurring between now and June 2026 [10] - Mortgage rates have remained stable or decreased since January, with the Federal Reserve maintaining an overnight interest rate of 4.00% to 4.25% as of September 8 [2] Home Equity and Investment Opportunities - As of Q3 2024, the average U.S. homeowner had approximately $311,000 in home equity, suggesting potential for leveraging this equity through options like home equity lines of credit (HELOC) [5][6] - Homeshares is providing a new avenue for accredited investors to gain exposure to the $36 trillion home equity market without the burdens of property management, allowing investments starting at $25,000 [11][12] - Homeshares offers risk-adjusted target returns ranging from 14% to 17%, presenting a low-maintenance alternative to traditional property ownership [13]

Core Insights - The artificial intelligence boom presents a multitrillion-dollar investment opportunity, but the real estate sector also holds significant potential, particularly with $35 trillion in home equity available to U.S. homeowners [1][3][14] Real Estate Market Opportunity - U.S. homeowners currently possess an all-time high of $35 trillion in home equity, largely due to rising home values and low refinancing activity [3][13] - A potential decline in mortgage rates could trigger a surge in refinancing volume, possibly reaching trillions of dollars [3][13] Company Analysis: Rocket Companies - Rocket Companies is the leading mortgage originator in the U.S., and a rise in refinancing volume could significantly boost its business [5][6] - In the most recent quarter, Rocket closed on $26.1 billion in loan origination volume, a decrease from $103.5 billion in the same quarter of 2021 when rates were lower [6] - The company is expanding its all-in-one real estate platform and has recently acquired Redfin, with a pending acquisition of Mr. Cooper [7][8] - Rocket has a 97% client retention rate and aims to capture a larger market share in a highly fragmented mortgage market, which sees $5 trillion to $6 trillion in home sales annually [8] Company Analysis: Upstart - Upstart focuses on improving loan repayment predictions compared to traditional credit scoring models, utilizing extensive data points [9] - The company is expanding into auto loans and home equity lines of credit (HELOCs), with home loan volume increasing by 52% sequentially in the first quarter [10][11] - Upstart's current annual run rate for HELOC origination is about $160 million, representing a small fraction of the overall market opportunity [12] - Capturing even a small percentage of the HELOC market could yield significant benefits for Upstart if interest rates decline [12][14]