Market Overview - Pre-market futures indicate a positive trend with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all up approximately +1%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 up +1.5% [1] - Despite the early gains, the market is still down over the past five trading days following a significant sell-off [1] - March is projected to be the worst-performing month for the stock market in four years, ending a three-quarter winning streak [2] Real Estate Sector - Case-Shiller Home Prices for January show a decline of -0.1% month-over-month, marking eight consecutive months without nationwide home price growth [3] - Year-over-year home prices increased by +1.2%, which is 10 basis points below expectations and 20 basis points lower than December's figures [3] - New York City has surpassed Chicago in home price growth, reporting +4.9% compared to Chicago's +4.6%, while Tampa experienced a decline of -2.5% [4] Earnings Reports - McCormick & Co. (MKC) reported fiscal Q1 earnings of 66 cents per share on revenues of $1.87 billion, exceeding expectations of 61 cents per share and $1.78 billion [5] - Despite outperforming estimates, MKC shares fell -6% in early trading due to shrinking margins and flat volumes [5] - Upcoming earnings reports include NIKE (NKE), RH (formerly Restoration Hardware), and PVH (formerly Phillips-Van Heusen), with NIKE expected to report a -46.3% decline in earnings per share year-over-year, while RH anticipates a +39.87% increase [6] Economic Indicators - The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for February is expected to remain stable at approximately +6.95 million job openings [7] - The Chicago Business Barometer for March is projected to decrease to 55.1 from 57.7, indicating potential challenges due to rising oil prices and limited supply [8] - The Consumer Confidence Index for March is also expected to decline to 87.5 from 91.2 in February, reflecting ongoing obstacles to sustained optimism [9]

Mortgage Market Overview - Mortgage rates ended 2025 at 6.15%, down from 6.91% a year prior, providing relief for homebuyers [1][10] - The year 2025 experienced high rates near 7% in the first half, which limited homebuying activity, but rates stabilized around 6.2% from mid-September due to Federal Reserve's monetary policy easing [2][10] Impact on Home Sales and mREITs - Lower mortgage rates and slower home price growth have increased pending home sales, indicating a potential rebound in the mortgage market for 2026 [3][10] - The improving housing conditions are expected to enhance financing conditions, boost transaction activity, and stabilize demand, which may lead to stronger fundamentals for mREITs [4][10] mREIT Stocks to Watch Ellington Financial (EFC) - EFC invests in a diverse range of financial assets, including residential and commercial mortgage loans, and has a strong securitization platform [5][6] - The company employs dynamic hedging strategies and maintains a balanced portfolio, with a dividend yield of 11.3% and a history of raising dividends [7] - Zacks Consensus Estimates indicate a 25.3% year-over-year earnings growth for 2025 [8] Annaly Capital Management (NLY) - NLY focuses on prudent asset selection and capital allocation, investing in Agency mortgage-backed securities and non-agency assets [12][13] - The company has a dividend yield of 12.2% and has raised its dividend once in the past five years, with a projected earnings growth of 7.4% for 2025 [14] NexPoint Real Estate Finance (NREF) - NREF specializes in originating and investing in first mortgage loans and commercial mortgage-backed securities, with a focus on multi-family and single-family rentals [17][19] - The company has a dividend yield of 14.2% and has raised its dividend three times over the past five years, with earnings growth estimates of 1.7% for 2025 [20]

Home price growth slowed in September as economic uncertainty pushed would-be buyers to the sidelines. https://t.co/QvB8MwvLYC ...

Core Insights - The national home price growth is projected to average 2.4% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026, following a growth of 5.3% in 2024, according to the Q3 2025 Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations Survey [1] - The latest estimates represent a downward revision from previous expectations of 2.9% for 2025 and 2.8% for 2026 [1] Group 1: Home Price Forecasts - A panel of over 100 housing experts provided forecasts for national home price changes, indicating a deceleration in growth rates [1][4] - The Fannie Mae Home Price Index (FNM-HPI) serves as the benchmark for these forecasts [4] Group 2: Survey Details - The Q3 2025 HPES included 114 respondents and was conducted between August 11, 2025, and August 25, 2025 [4] - The survey also explored factors influencing home price deceleration and the mortgage rate levels that could significantly impact home sales activity [1]