Core Insights - The housing market is expected to enter a new era in 2026, characterized by flat or declining home prices and increasing sales, leading to improved affordability for buyers [2][3] - The current trend of high withdrawal rates from listings indicates a potential shadow demand, with an estimated 150,000 individuals looking to make transactions in the coming year [7][6] - Florida is anticipated to experience significant transaction velocity in 2026, with weekly pending sales showing a 10-15% increase compared to the previous year [8] Market Dynamics - The last four years have seen stagnant sales and relentless price increases, worsening affordability [2] - Incomes are projected to rise faster than home prices, marking the beginning of improved affordability [3] - The withdrawal phenomenon, where listings are held off the market without price cuts, suggests that many potential buyers are waiting for better conditions to transact [5][6] Regional Insights - Florida is highlighted as a market with increasing sales activity, while areas like New York and Chicago have been constrained by tight inventory [8] - As inventory levels rise, sales growth is expected to improve in previously limited markets [9] Mortgage Rate Sensitivity - Consumers are more sensitive to changes in mortgage rates rather than the absolute levels, with a forecast of rates remaining in the low sixes [10] - A potential decrease in mortgage rates towards 6% could further boost sales activity in the first half of 2026 [11]