Core Insights - Toll Brothers (TOL) and D.R. Horton (DHI) are leading U.S. homebuilders with different market focuses, with TOL specializing in luxury homes and DHI dominating the entry-level and affordable housing segment [1][9] - Both companies have shown solid performance despite high mortgage rates and cautious consumer sentiment, with their stocks rallying sharply in recent months [2][14] - A comparison of the fundamentals of TOL and DHI is essential to determine the better investment opportunity [3] Toll Brothers Overview - Toll Brothers has maintained steady momentum due to its luxury niche, with 26% of buyers in the fiscal third quarter paying cash and financed buyers averaging a 70% loan-to-value ratio [4][6] - The average selling prices (ASPs) exceed $1 million, with backlog ASP at $1.16 million, providing stability amid fluctuating housing demand [4][6] - A strategic shift to a 50/50 mix of spec and build-to-order homes has improved flexibility, with 3,200 spec homes under construction and 1,800 permits in hand [5] - Backlog support includes 5,492 homes valued at $6.4 billion, with plans to increase active communities from 420 to 440-450 by year-end [6] - The balance sheet is stable, with a net debt-to-capital ratio of 19.3%, $852 million in cash, and $2.2 billion in available credit [7] D.R. Horton Overview - D.R. Horton benefits from unmatched scale, operating in 36 states and over 120 markets, which provides cost advantages and better lot control [9][10] - The company closed 23,160 homes in the fiscal third quarter, achieving a gross margin of 21.8% while maintaining a low cancellation rate [11] - D.R. Horton has increased its community count by 12% year-over-year and introduced smaller homes to meet affordability needs [11][12] - The company has a strong liquidity position of $5.5 billion and a leverage ratio of 23.2%, with a book value per share of $80.46 [12] Share Price Performance - TOL stock has increased by approximately 11% year-to-date, while DHI stock has risen about 20.4%, outperforming both the industry and the S&P 500 index [14] - In the last three months, DHI stock surged roughly 30.8%, compared to TOL's rally of 24.2% [14] Valuation and Earnings Estimates - TOL's forward 12-month P/E ratio is 9.96, lower than DHI's 13.98, indicating a premium for DHI due to its market leadership [18] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TOL's fiscal 2025 EPS has decreased to $13.82, reflecting a 7.9% decline from the previous year [20] - Conversely, DHI's fiscal 2025 EPS estimate has increased to $11.79, indicating a positive shift in sentiment despite a 17.8% year-over-year decline [22] Investment Outlook - While both companies have shown resilience, the near-term risk-reward appears more favorable for Toll Brothers due to its affluent customer base and pricing strength [25][26] - D.R. Horton's reliance on incentives and shrinking ASPs may temper its upside in the current market [26][27] - Toll Brothers is better positioned to capture incremental gains as mortgage rates ease and demand stabilizes, offering stronger near-term upside potential compared to D.R. Horton [27]