Housing market reset
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Offerpad, Opendoor Stocks Go Vertical On Trump Mortgage Plans
Benzinga· 2026-01-09 16:18
Core Viewpoint - Offerpad Solutions, Inc. (NYSE:OPAD) shares surged over 50% following President Trump's housing directive aimed at lowering mortgage rates and prioritizing individual homeowners over institutional investors [1][6]. Group 1: Market Reaction - OPAD stock experienced a significant rally, with Opendoor Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:OPEN) also seeing double-digit gains in response to the proposed housing measures [1]. - Other companies such as LoanDepot, Inc. (NYSE:LDI) and Rocket Companies, Inc. (NYSE:RKT) rose by 17% and 6% respectively, as the market anticipates a refinancing wave if mortgage rates fall below 6% [2]. Group 2: Policy Details - The central element of Trump's plan involves a federal directive to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS), aimed at injecting liquidity into the market to lower mortgage rates and enhance home affordability [3]. - The proposal includes utilizing the cash reserves of Fannie Mae (OTC:FNMA) and Freddie Mac (OTC:FMCC) to buy mortgage bonds, which is expected to alleviate the current housing market gridlock [3]. Group 3: Impact on Business Models - High interest rates have created a lock-in effect, preventing homeowners with low rates from selling; lowering rates would benefit Offerpad and Opendoor by speeding up transactions and reducing inventory costs [4]. - Trump's call for a ban on institutional investors purchasing single-family homes aims to eliminate competition for individual buyers, potentially benefiting companies that facilitate consumer-to-consumer transactions [5]. Group 4: Overall Implications - The administration's message indicates a strong intent to reset the housing market, with active measures to stimulate the residential real estate sector [6].
Why a $3.6 Million Bet on Louisiana-Pacific Looks Timed for a Housing Reset
The Motley Fool· 2025-12-25 20:50
Company Overview - Louisiana-Pacific Corporation is a leading manufacturer of engineered wood products, serving new home construction, repair, and remodeling markets [6] - The company generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of value-added wood-based building materials to various markets, including construction and outdoor structures [8] Financial Performance - For the trailing twelve months (TTM), Louisiana-Pacific reported revenue of $2.82 billion and a net income of $216 million [4] - The company's dividend yield stands at 1.4% [4] - In the third quarter, siding revenue increased by 5% year over year to $443 million, driven by pricing, while oriented strand board (OSB) revenue fell sharply due to declining commodity prices [10] - Adjusted EBITDA dropped to $82 million from $153 million a year earlier, but management reaffirmed full-year siding EBITDA guidance of approximately $430 million with margins near 26% [10] Recent Developments - Elwood Capital Partners initiated a new position in Louisiana-Pacific Corporation by acquiring 40,000 shares valued at approximately $3.55 million, bringing the fund's total reportable U.S. equity positions to 19 [2][3] - This new position represents 2.17% of the fund's 13F assets under management (AUM) as of September 30 [3] - As of the latest report, LPX shares were priced at $82.55, down 21% over the past year, underperforming the S&P 500, which is up about 15% in the same period [3] Market Position and Strategy - The balance sheet remains strong with $1.1 billion in liquidity and positive operating cash flow of $89 million in the quarter, despite $84 million in capital spending [11] - The company is shifting towards value-added products, which may provide a more stable earnings base compared to the volatility in OSB prices [11]