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Stride Drops 57% Post Q1 Earnings: Should You Buy the Dip or Wait?
ZACKSยท 2025-11-14 12:36
Core Viewpoint - Stride, Inc. (LRN) experienced a significant stock decline of 57% following the release of its first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings, despite reporting earnings and revenues that exceeded consensus estimates [2][3][7]. Financial Performance - In the first quarter of fiscal 2026, Stride's earnings and revenues surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 23.6% and 1%, respectively, with year-over-year growth of 39.4% in earnings and 12.7% in revenues, driven by increased enrollments and revenue per enrollment [3][7]. - The Career Learning segment showed stronger growth than the General Education segment during this quarter, with Career Learning revenues increasing by 16.3% year over year [19]. Challenges and Outlook - Stride's fiscal 2026 outlook is muted due to ongoing issues with technology platform rollouts, which have led to approximately 10,000-15,000 fewer enrollments than expected [5][6][7]. - The company has indicated that enrollment trends may remain subdued throughout the fiscal year, raising concerns among investors [3][6][7]. - Earnings estimates for fiscal 2026 and 2027 have been revised downward by 4.8% and 8.3%, respectively, reflecting the impact of these challenges on analyst expectations [9]. Competitive Position - Stride competes in the career learning and K-12 services sectors against companies like Strategic Education, American Public Education, and Coursera, each with distinct strengths [11][12][14]. - Stride's integrated K-12 and career learning model provides a competitive edge, particularly in the adult skills market, although it faces substantial competition from larger players [14]. Growth Factors - Stride's business model includes K-12 online programs and expanding hybrid options, aligning with the shift towards virtual and career-oriented education [15]. - The company is focusing on affordability in its offerings, including free tutoring programs for younger students and personalized career-focused education [17][18][19]. - As of September 30, 2025, Stride maintained a stable liquidity position with cash and cash equivalents of $518.4 million, sufficient to meet long-term obligations [20]. Valuation - Stride's stock is currently trading at a discount compared to industry peers, with a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 7.57 [22]. - Despite the near-term challenges, the company retains strong structural demand tailwinds, particularly in its higher-margin Career Learning segment [23][25].