Slowing job growth and cooling wages suggest holiday spending resilience may be tested into early 2026.Two-thirds of U.S. consumers still live paycheck to paycheck, increasingly out of necessity rather than choice.Retail sales were flat in October as paycheck-to-paycheck households pulled back on discretionary categories.After weeks of delay, a fresh wave of government data is finally offering a clearer snapshot of how consumers and workers in the United States have weathered months of tariff uncertainty, h ...

Core Insights - American consumer spending remains robust, particularly at retailers like Walmart, Gap, and TJX, indicating a healthy holiday shopping season [2][3] - The National Retail Federation projects retail sales for November and December to grow between 3.7% and 4.2%, reaching approximately $1.01 trillion to $1.02 trillion [4] - Despite economic pressures, households with stable incomes continue to drive U.S. economic activity, while those living paycheck to paycheck are tightening budgets [5][6] Retailer Performance - Walmart's incoming CEO noted that U.S. customers are still spending, reflecting ongoing consumer confidence [3] - Gap is experiencing growth across all income levels, with an increase in full-price sales expected to boost holiday performance [3] - Target's recent earnings report indicated a 2.7% decline in comparable sales, highlighting strain among middle-income consumers [6][7] Consumer Behavior - Two-thirds of American adults live paycheck to paycheck, with 42% doing so out of necessity, indicating a significant portion of the population faces income instability [6] - Target's Chief Commercial Officer mentioned that consumers are focusing on essentials and seeking discounts, consistent with the behavior of paycheck-to-paycheck households [7]