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Can You Really Retire Comfortably on Stocks Alone?
The Smart Investorยท 2025-12-09 09:30
Group 1: Retirement Concerns - More Singaporeans are questioning if the traditional reliance on CPF and property is sufficient for retirement as costs rise and ambitions increase [1] - The aspiration to build a stock portfolio for dividends and wealth accumulation is seen as a pathway to a stress-free retirement, but its feasibility is under scrutiny [1] Group 2: Stock Performance and Income Generation - Stocks provide both steady dividend income and long-term capital appreciation, contributing to their superior performance compared to other asset classes [2] - The Straits Times Index (STI) has delivered an annualized total return of 8.38% over the past decade, highlighting the growth potential of equities [2] - Dividend portfolios, such as those tracked by the iEdge APAC Financials Dividend Plus Index, currently yield 5.22% on a trailing basis, offering reliable income [3] Group 3: Inflation and Dividend Growth - Companies like Singapore Exchange (SGX) have increased dividends from S$0.30 per share in FY2018 to S$0.375 in FY2025, reflecting a growth rate of approximately 3.2% annually, which outpaces Singapore's average inflation rate of 2.24% [3][4] - Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT) also demonstrates strong dividend growth, with annual payouts increasing from S$0.079 in FY2018/2019 to S$0.088 in FY2021/2022, growing at over 5% annually [4] Group 4: Risks of Stock Investments - Stock portfolios are subject to market volatility, which can impact retirees who withdraw funds during downturns, locking in losses [6] - The pandemic highlighted risks when CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT) saw a 27.4% drop in DPU from S$0.1197 in FY2019 to S$0.0869 in FY2020 due to rental waivers and lower tenant sales [8] Group 5: Diversification and Income Planning - Successful income portfolios should diversify across dividend stocks, REITs, and growth companies to mitigate risks and ensure steady returns [10] - A well-structured dividend portfolio yielding 5% on S$1 million can generate about S$50,000 annually, providing a sustainable cash flow for retirement [11][12] Group 6: Asset Class Comparison - Singapore's Central Provident Fund (CPF) offers guaranteed returns but lacks flexibility, while bonds provide predictable income but may underperform against inflation [14] - Stocks are characterized by high liquidity and potential for growth, with a long-term return of approximately 8% per year, but they require emotional discipline and a long investment horizon [15] Group 7: Retirement Income Goals - A "comfortable" retirement is often defined as replacing 60-80% of pre-retirement income, translating to an annual target of S$40,000 to S$60,000 for many Singapore households [16] - A retirement portfolio of S$1 million to S$1.5 million, yielding 4% to 5%, can support this income level without depleting capital too quickly [17] Group 8: Ongoing Retirement Planning - Sustainable retirement planning involves balancing withdrawals, dividends, and capital growth, ensuring that wealth is replenished over time [18] - Regular reviews and strategic reinvestment of surplus income can significantly extend the lifespan of a retirement portfolio [18]