Core Insights - The macro narrative has shifted from "growth and inflation" to "institutional and governance risk," affecting asset performance and highlighting the importance of asset independence under stress [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold and silver are gaining relative strength, while Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are showing relative weakness, indicating a repricing where hard assets are competing for an "independence premium" [2] - The market is currently focused on three critical questions: what currency to settle in, who the marginal buyer is, and which risk bucket an asset occupies within a portfolio, leading to a widening gap between precious metals and crypto [3] Group 2: Bitcoin Performance Analysis - A review of Bitcoin's performance over the past year shows that during the "Liberation Day" rally, BTC reached a high of $126 billion, driven by USD-settled derivatives rather than just the "digital gold" narrative [4] - From March to October 2025, open interest in BTC Delta 1 contracts increased from approximately $46 billion to over $92 billion, providing BTC with significant leverage support and enabling it to outperform gold in the short term [5] Group 3: Leverage and Risk Framework - The rise of stablecoins like USDT and USDC has led to an increase in USD-denominated leverage, which has become a key driver of market movements, making BTC behave more like a portfolio asset [6] - BTC is easily integrated into a USD-based risk framework, meaning that when dollar liquidity tightens, BTC is often one of the first assets to experience the effects of de-risking [7] Group 4: Market Perception of Bitcoin - The market is not losing faith in Bitcoin as "digital gold," but is increasingly treating it as a tradable macro factor, similar to high-volatility dollar beta rather than a stable store of value [8]