Digital asset treasury company Metaplanet (3350) rose 4% in Tokyo on Wednesday after index provider MSCI decided not to exclude firms building cryptocurrency stockpiles from its global indexes. Metaplanet is now up 20% since the start of the year. The rally means company is valued at a premium to its bitcoin holdings, with a multiple to net asset value (mNAV) of around 1.25, the highest level since before October's plunge in crypto prices, according to the company’s dashboard. The decision ended months ...

Core Viewpoint - Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ:MSTR) is experiencing significant market speculation regarding its potential removal from the MSCI index, with traders estimating a 76% probability of this event occurring by March 31. The company's executive chairman, Michael Saylor, believes Bitcoin adds an interesting dimension to the stock, but concerns about its classification and index eligibility persist [1][4]. Group 1: Options Activity and Market Positioning - MSTR's options interest-to-market cap ratio is currently at 86.2%, which is significantly higher than that of major peers like Tesla (22%), Meta (10.4%), and Nvidia (7.2%) [2]. - Tech giants such as Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft have much lower ratios, clustering around 3-4%, indicating MSTR's extreme derivatives positioning relative to its market size [3]. - A large options expiry on January 2 could lead to increased short-term volatility, although MSTR's performance over the past year has lagged behind its larger peers despite the heightened options activity [3]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Structural Pressure - Traders on Polymarket are anticipating structural pressure on MSTR's equity narrative as 2026 approaches, with the 76% probability of MSCI index removal reflecting ongoing concerns rather than temporary risks [4]. - Confidence in MSTR announcing Bitcoin holdings above 680,000 BTC by January 31 has decreased, with current odds at 64%, down from recent highs [4][5]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - MSTR's stock is currently in a downtrend, having declined 66% from a peak near $460 in late July, with a recent price increase of 3.70% [9]. - The nearest overhead resistance is at the 20 EMA of $167.67, followed by the 50 EMA at $202.78, while the Supertrend indicator at $181.47 has turned bearish, reinforcing the downtrend [10][11]. - A break below $148 could lead to further downside, with no clear support until the $120-$130 range [12]. Conversely, reclaiming $180 and holding it as support would signal a potential trend reversal [13].